Long-term trends in the burden of leukemia subtypes in China from 1990 to 2021: a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021 - Summary - MDSpire
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Long-term trends in the burden of leukemia subtypes in China from 1990 to 2021: a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021
To assess trends in four major leukemia subtypes (AML, CML, ALL, CLL) in China from 1990 to 2021 and project incidence rates over the subsequent 25 years.
Key Findings:
In 2021, there were an estimated 105,670 new leukemia cases in China.
ALL had the highest overall burden, while CML had the lowest burden and showed the greatest declines in incidence, deaths, and DALYs.
Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) declined for AML and CML but increased for ALL and CLL, indicating a shift in public health challenges.
Age was the primary determinant of incidence, with distinct age distributions and cohort patterns across subtypes.
Projected incidence rates: stable for AML and CML, gradually declining for ALL, and continuing to rise for CLL through 2046.
Interpretation:
The decreasing burden of AML and CML may be linked to improvements in access to diagnosis and treatment, while rising ALL and CLL incidence presents new public health challenges that require targeted interventions.
Limitations:
The study relies on data from the GBD 2021 database, which may have inherent limitations in data accuracy and completeness, potentially affecting the study's conclusions.
The projections are based on historical trends and may not account for future changes in risk factors or healthcare interventions.
Conclusion:
Distinct long-term incidence trends for leukemia subtypes in China necessitate tailored, subtype- and age-specific strategies for effective control and resource planning, emphasizing the need for ongoing public health initiatives.
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