Association of CTI and its obesity-related derivatives with incident depression among middle-aged and older adults across CKM stages 0-4: a nationwide prospective cohort study and external clinical validation - Report - MDSpire

Association of CTI and its obesity-related derivatives with incident depression among middle-aged and older adults across CKM stages 0-4: a nationwide prospective cohort study and external clinical validation

  • By

  • Rui Zhang

  • Bin Yang

  • Na-Na Pan

  • Yi An

  • Qing Yu

  • May 20, 2026

  • 0 min

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Link Between CTI and Obesity-Related Factors with Depression Onset

Overview

Revise to clarify that higher baseline CTI-CVAI is linked to a decreased risk of developing depression.

Background

The integration of cardiovascular, kidney, and metabolic (CKM) risks is crucial for understanding the complex interplay between physical health and mental well-being. Depression is prevalent among individuals with CKM syndrome, exacerbating health outcomes and mortality. Identifying biomarkers like CTI-CVAI can aid in early intervention and management strategies for at-risk populations.

Data Highlights

MeasureValue
AUC for CTI-CVAI0.705
NRI0.126
IDI0.005
HR per 1-SD increase in CTI-CVAI0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96)
HR for high-increasing trajectory group0.81 (95% CI: 0.69-0.97)
HR for highest cumulative exposure tertile0.87 (95% CI: 0.76-0.97)

Key Findings

  • 1,275 participants developed depression over a 9-year follow-up.
  • CTI-CVAI showed the highest predictive value for depression (AUC = 0.705).
  • Higher baseline CTI-CVAI was linked to a decreased risk of depression (HR = 0.91 per 1-SD increase).
  • A linear dose-response relationship was observed for baseline and cumulative CTI-CVAI.
  • The inverse association was more pronounced in participants aged <60 years.
  • External validation confirmed the predictive power of CTI-CVAI (AUC = 0.691).

Clinical Implications

Clinicians should consider incorporating CTI-CVAI as a potential biomarker for assessing depression risk in middle-aged and older adults with CKM syndrome. Early identification of individuals at risk can facilitate timely interventions aimed at improving mental health outcomes.

Conclusion

CTI-CVAI serves as a promising independent predictor of incident depression in CKM populations, highlighting the importance of monitoring cardiometabolic health to support mental well-being.

Related Resources & Content

  1. BMC Psychiatry (Springer), 2025 -- Frequency and Factors Associated with Overweight and Obesity in Individuals with Major Depression and Altered TSH Levels
  2. Clinical Research in Cardiology, 2025 -- Linking the C-reactive protein-triglyceride glucose index (CTI) to cardiovascular and overall mortality risk in older adults: findings from three datasets
  3. American Journal of Epidemiology -- Association of Depressive Symptoms with Diabetes Progression in Chinese Adults Aged 45 and Older with Prediabetes: Findings from a National Cohort Study
  4. A Guide to Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health | American Heart Association
  5. BMC Psychiatry (Springer) — The dysbiosis of gut microbiota in major depressive disorder and comorbidity with overweight/obesity: unraveling biomarkers and metabolic pathways from a microbial perspective
  6. Association of the triglyceride-glucose index with risk of depression and anxiety: A prospective cohort study
  7. A Guide to Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health | American Heart Association
  8. Summary of Revisions: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 | Diabetes Care | American Diabetes Association

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