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Volatility priors may reveal delusion severity in schizophrenia

  • By

  • Andrea Surnit

  • August 25, 2026

  • 4 min

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Clinical Report: Volatility priors may reveal delusion severity in schizophrenia

Overview

This study found that elevated expectations of environmental volatility were associated with greater delusion severity among patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders over a 6-month period.

Background

Delusions are a core feature of psychotic disorders. This study explores the role of volatility priors in tracking delusion severity among patients recovering from acute psychotic episodes.

Data Highlights

GroupVolatility PriorsDelusion Severity
Patients with SchizophreniaHigher at baselineDecreased at 6 months
Nonclinical ParticipantsLower at baselineStable

Key Findings

  • Higher volatility priors were observed in patients with schizophrenia compared to nonclinical participants at baseline.
  • Volatility priors tracked greater clinician-rated delusion severity over time among patients.
  • Delusion severity, paranoia, and delusional ideation decreased among patients at 6 months.
  • Volatility priors remained elevated in patients compared to nonclinical participants throughout the study.
  • Associations between volatility priors and delusions were stronger for persecutory delusions than for grandiose delusions.

Clinical Implications

The findings indicate that volatility priors could be a metric for assessing delusion severity in clinical settings.

Conclusion

This study highlights the association between volatility priors and delusion severity in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders.

Related Resources & Content

  1. Sheffield JM, et al., Biological Psychiatry: Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroimaging, 2023 -- Volatility priors may reveal delusion severity in schizophrenia
  2. BMC Psychiatry (Springer) — From collective memory to clinical cases: analyzing political delusions in patients with psychotic disorders
  3. MDSpire News — Bipolar Psychosis: Examining Diagnostic Boundaries
  4. npj Digital Medicine — Modeling Variability in Multimodal Speech Analysis Throughout the Psychosis Spectrum
  5. Psychiatry.org - Schizophrenia
  6. Journal of Medical Internet Research (JMIR) — Artificial Intelligence Centrality in Psychotic Delusions and Violence Risk in Forensic Psychiatry: Retrospective Observational Study of Judicial Decisions
  7. Psychiatry.org - Schizophrenia
  8. Continuing, reducing, switching, or stopping antipsychotics in individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders who are clinically stable: a systematic review and network meta-analysis - PubMed
  9. Prior Expectations of Volatility Following Psychotherapy for Delusions: A Randomized Clinical Trial | Psychotherapy | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network

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