An explainable predictive machine learning model of osteopenia for perimenopausal women based on clinical data: a retrospective single-center study - Report - MDSpire

An explainable predictive machine learning model of osteopenia for perimenopausal women based on clinical data: a retrospective single-center study

  • By

  • Xiaoling Zhuo

  • Huixian Zeng

  • Huoqiang Chen

  • Yunlin Wang

  • Zhenhua Feng

  • Quanhui Liang

  • May 29, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: A Predictive Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Osteopenia

Overview

This study developed a machine learning model to identify osteopenia in perimenopausal women using clinical data. The random forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance in predicting osteopenia, with an AUC of 0.978 in training and 0.933 in validation datasets.

Background

Edit to strictly present the limitations of traditional methods as per the source.

Data Highlights

ModelAUC (Training)AUC (Validation)
Random Forest0.9780.933
Other ModelsNot specifiedNot specified

Key Findings

  • 17 predictors of osteopenia were identified, including menopause, age, and biochemical markers.
  • Random forest (RF) model outperformed other algorithms in accuracy and clinical utility.
  • Key predictors included procollagen type I N-terminal propeptide (PINP) and beta-crosslaps (β-CTX).
  • A web-based calculator was developed for clinical use to facilitate early detection.
  • The study included 1,108 female participants aged 45 and above.

Clinical Implications

The random forest model can aid clinicians in identifying women at risk for osteopenia, potentially leading to earlier intervention. The integration of this model into clinical practice may improve patient outcomes related to osteoporosis management.

Conclusion

The machine learning model developed in this study shows promise for enhancing the early detection of osteopenia in perimenopausal women. Its application could significantly impact osteoporosis prevention strategies.

Related Resources & Content

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  4. Recommendation: Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: Screening | United States Preventive Services Taskforce
  5. Frontiers in Endocrinology — A Nomogram for Predicting Low Bone Mineral Density in the Elderly Using Chest CT
  6. International Menopause Society Recommendations on Midlife Women’s Health
  7. Recommendation: Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: Screening | United States Preventive Services Taskforce
  8. Pharmacological Management of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women Guideline Resources | Endocrine Society
  9. Fracture Prevention with Infrequent Zoledronate in Women 50 to 60 Years of Age | New England Journal of Medicine
  10. Home | FRAXplus®
  11. Interpretable Machine Learning for Osteopenia Detection: A Proof-of-Concept Study Using Bioelectrical Impedance in Perimenopausal Women - PubMed
  12. Opportunistic Bone-Loss Screening from Routine Knee Radiographs Using a Multi-Task Deep Learning Framework with Sensitivity-Constrained Threshold Optimization

Original Source(s)

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