Temporal dynamics and determinants of early recurrence after curative resection for stage I-III rectal cancer: integrated analyses of hazard function, survival, and competing risks - Report - MDSpire

Temporal dynamics and determinants of early recurrence after curative resection for stage I-III rectal cancer: integrated analyses of hazard function, survival, and competing risks

  • By

  • Rongda He

  • Zhiqiang Zhang

  • Ruishu Li

  • Yulong He

  • June 18, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Influencing Factors for Early Recurrence Following Curative Surgery in Stage I-III Rectal Cancer

Overview

This study analyzes the temporal patterns of recurrence after curative surgery in stage I-III rectal cancer, identifying key factors associated with early recurrence.

Background

Recurrence after curative resection is a critical factor influencing long-term outcomes in rectal cancer. This study aims to characterize the temporal distribution of recurrence and identify high-risk patients.

Data Highlights

FactorOdds Ratio (OR)95% Confidence Interval (CI)P-value
Lymph Node Ratio (LNR)1.361.18-1.57< 0.001
T4 Stage2.741.13-6.650.026

Key Findings

  • Recurrence hazard peaked at approximately 24 months post-surgery.
  • Early recurrence was defined as recurrence within 24 months.
  • Lymph node ratio (LNR) and T4 stage were identified as independent correlates of early recurrence.
  • Distant metastasis was more prevalent than local recurrence during follow-up.
  • Multivariable Cox analyses showed LNR, T4 stage, and carcinoembryonic antigen were associated with worse time-to-recurrence and overall survival.

Clinical Implications

The identification of LNR and T4 stage as predictors of early recurrence is noted.

Conclusion

The study provides insights into the temporal dynamics of recurrence in rectal cancer.

Related Resources & Content

  1. Identifying Early Recurrence in Patients After Resection of Primary Colorectal Cancer and Associated Risk Factors, Springer, 2021 -- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00384-021-03844-7
  2. Prognostic Evaluation of Recurrent Colorectal Cancer Using Hazard Function Analysis, Springer, 2024 -- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00423-024-03308-w
  3. Impact of Initial Treatment Strategies on Prognosis Following Recurrence in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: Findings from a Retrospective Cohort Study, Springer, 2024 -- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00384-024-04721-9
  4. Management of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: ASCO Guideline | Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2024 -- https://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/JCO.24.01160
  5. The ASCO Post — Colorectal Cancer: Incidence and Time to Recurrence
  6. Colorectal Cancer: Incidence and Time to Recurrence, ASCO Post, 2023
  7. Localised rectal cancer: ESMO Clinical Practice Guideline for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up, PubMed, 2025
  8. Management of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: ASCO Guideline | Journal of Clinical Oncology
  9. Radiation Therapy for Rectal Cancer: An ASTRO Clinical Practice Guideline Focused Update - PubMed
  10. NCCN Guidelines® Insights: Rectal Cancer, Version 3.2024 - PubMed
  11. Watch and Wait for Rectal Cancer: A Risky Gamble or a Safe Strategy for Patients With a Near-Complete Response? | Journal of Clinical Oncology
  12. Preoperative Treatment of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer | New England Journal of Medicine
  13. 5-Jahres-Follow-up der RAPIDO-Studie: Zurück in die Zukunft der Langzeitradiochemotherapie bei totaler neoadjuvanter Therapie (TNT) des lokal fortgeschrittenen Rektumkarzinoms? | Strahlentherapie und Onkologie | Springer Nature Link
  14. Total neoadjuvant therapy with mFOLFIRINOX versus preoperative chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer: long-term results of the UNICANCER-PRODIGE 23 trial - ScienceDirect
  15. Long-term recurrence patterns in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant therapy: 25-years of real-world data - ScienceDirect
  16. Recurrence patterns and management of locally recurrent rectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study | Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery | Springer Nature Link
  17. A competing risk analysis of colorectal cancer recurrence after curative surgery - PMC
  18. Frontiers | Temporal Dynamics and Determinants of Early Recurrence After Curative Resection for Stage I-III Rectal Cancer: Integrated Analyses of Hazard Function, Survival, and Competing Risks

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