Enhanced Mortality Risk Prediction in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Using Stress Hyperglycemia Ratio and Machine Learning: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis - Report - MDSpire

Enhanced Mortality Risk Prediction in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Using Stress Hyperglycemia Ratio and Machine Learning: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis

  • By

  • Jiaxing Du

  • Keze Ma

  • Zhiwei Ye

  • Juanli Song

  • Sujun Chen

  • Jie Yu

  • Bing Liu

  • Zixuan Jiang

  • Fen Zhang

  • January 16, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Enhanced Mortality Risk Prediction in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Overview

This study evaluates the prognostic value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) in critically ill COVID-19 patients and develops a machine learning-based mortality prediction model. Findings indicate that SHR is a significant independent predictor of mortality, outperforming traditional blood glucose measurements.

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to high mortality rates among critically ill patients, necessitating effective risk assessment tools. Stress hyperglycemia is common in this population and is associated with worse outcomes, making it essential to identify reliable predictors of mortality. The SHR offers a novel approach to assess hyperglycemia by considering baseline glycemic control, potentially improving patient management.

Data Highlights

No numerical data available in the provided source material.

Key Findings

  • The stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) is a significant independent predictor of mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients.
  • SHR accounts for the proportional elevation of glucose levels relative to baseline, providing a more accurate assessment than absolute glucose levels.
  • Machine learning models developed in this study show superior predictive performance for mortality compared to traditional statistical methods.
  • Hyperglycemia exacerbates COVID-19 progression through inflammatory responses and impaired immune function.
  • Existing evidence supports the use of SHR as a risk stratifier beyond absolute glucose measurements.

Clinical Implications

Clinicians should consider utilizing the stress hyperglycemia ratio in their assessments of critically ill COVID-19 patients to better predict mortality risk. Implementing machine learning models may enhance decision-making processes in intensive care settings, leading to improved patient outcomes.

Conclusion

The study underscores the importance of the stress hyperglycemia ratio as a prognostic tool in critically ill COVID-19 patients. By integrating machine learning approaches, healthcare providers can optimize glycemic management and improve mortality predictions.

References

  1. The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 2023 -- Identifying Risk Factors for Negative Outcomes in Pediatric Patients with Diabetic Ketoacidosis
  2. Infection, 2025 -- The Role of Endothelin-1 and CRB-65 in Improving Risk Assessment for COVID-19 Patients
  3. Infection, 2023 -- The Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on 90-Day Mortality Among Elderly Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19
  4. The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 2023 -- Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Dexamethasone in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients with Diabetes
  5. Guidelines on Glycemic Control for Critically Ill Children and Adults | SCCM, 2024
  6. Association between stress hyperglycemia ratio and prognosis of patients hospitalized with COVID‐19: A meta‐analysis - PMC, 2025
  7. Machine Learning for Predicting Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients: A Prognostic Performance Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis - PubMed, 2025
  8. Guidelines on Glycemic Control for Critically Ill Children and Adults | SCCM
  9. Association between stress hyperglycemia ratio and prognosis of patients hospitalized with COVID‐19: A meta‐analysis - PMC
  10. Machine Learning for Predicting Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients: A Prognostic Performance Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis - PubMed

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