Sex differences in the predictive value of insulin resistance surrogate indicators for prediabetes among Chinese adults aged 18–45 years: a multicenter cohort study - Report - MDSpire

Sex differences in the predictive value of insulin resistance surrogate indicators for prediabetes among Chinese adults aged 18–45 years: a multicenter cohort study

  • By

  • Yafei Chang

  • Luming Zhang

  • Shafiu Adam UmarShinge

  • Rui Gu

  • Xingchao Zhou

  • Qingzhou Zhang

  • Xinyi Zhang

  • Binbin Zhang

  • Jiawei Liu

  • Yanqi Yang

  • June 24, 2026

  • 0 min

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Gender-Based Variations in the Predictive Utility of Insulin Resistance Surrogates

Overview

This study evaluates the predictive value of four insulin resistance surrogate indices for incident prediabetes in Chinese adults aged 18 to 45, highlighting significant sex-specific disparities.

Background

The rising prevalence of prediabetes, particularly among younger populations in China, necessitates understanding its predictive markers to enhance early identification and intervention efforts. This study addresses the gap in knowledge regarding sex-specific differences in the predictive utility of insulin resistance surrogates.

Data Highlights

ParameterValue
Participants63,795
Incidence of Prediabetes5,304 (8.31%)
Male Incidence10.76%
Female Incidence5.74%
METS-IR HR (Women)7.82
METS-IR HR (Men)1.45
TyG-BMI AUC0.6497

Key Findings

  • 5,304 participants developed prediabetes during the follow-up period.
  • Men had a significantly higher incidence of prediabetes compared to women (10.76% vs. 5.74%; p< 0.001).
  • All four insulin resistance indices were independently associated with incident prediabetes.
  • METS-IR showed a fully adjusted hazard ratio of 7.82 in women compared to 1.45 in men.
  • TyG-BMI demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy in the overall population with an AUC of 0.6497.
  • Women exhibited superior discriminative performance across all indices compared to men.

Clinical Implications

The findings indicate sex-specific differences in the predictive utility of insulin resistance surrogate indices.

Conclusion

Insulin resistance surrogate indices demonstrate significant predictive value for prediabetes in young Chinese women compared to men.

Related Resources & Content

  1. American Diabetes Association, Diabetes Care, 2026 -- Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes: Standards of Care in Diabetes
  2. Family Medicine and Community Health, 2025 -- Guidelines on primary healthcare for type 2 diabetes in China
  3. International Diabetes Federation, 2025 -- IDF Global Clinical Practice Recommendations
  4. PubMed -- Association between triglyceride-glucose and triglyceride glucose body mass index with risk of prediabetes
  5. Scientific Reports -- The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults
  6. BMC Endocrine Disorders -- Predictive value of MetS-IR for the glucose status conversion in prediabetes
  7. American Journal of Epidemiology — Association of Depressive Symptoms with Diabetes Progression in Chinese Adults Aged 45 and Older with Prediabetes: Findings from a National Cohort Study
  8. Frontiers in Endocrinology — BMI-specific nonlinear associations and threshold effects of the atherogenic index of plasma on incident prediabetes: insights from 100473 Chinese adults
  9. Frontiers in Endocrinology — Comparison of the association and discriminatory ability of CVAI, LAP, CI, and AVI for type 2 diabetes in Chinese adults aged ≥ 50 years: a sex-specific analysis
  10. Frontiers in Endocrinology — Comparative discriminatory performance of emerging endocrine-metabolic indices versus obesity indices for cardiometabolic multimorbidity in older adults: a cross-sectional study
  11. 2. Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 | Diabetes Care | American Diabetes Association
  12. Guidelines on primary healthcare for type 2 diabetes in China, 2025 | Family Medicine and Community Health
  13. International
  14. Association between triglyceride-glucose and triglyceride glucose body mass index with risk of prediabetes: a multicenter Chinese medical examination cohort study - PubMed
  15. The role of Triglyceride-Glucose index in predicting pre-DM risk among Chinese adults | Scientific Reports
  16. Predictive value of MetS-IR for the glucose status conversion in prediabetes: a multi-center retrospective cohort study | BMC Endocrine Disorders | Springer Nature Link

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