Extrapolation of MAP trends predicts hypotension and vasopressor up-titration in the ICU. - Report - MDSpire
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Forecasting MAP Patterns to Anticipate Hypotension and Increased Vasopressor Administration in Intensive Care Units

  • By

  • Iain Edmund Kehoe

  • Jeremy Alanano Pepino

  • Jin-Oh Hahn

  • Mary McAuley

  • Laura Lux

  • Abigail O’Connell

  • Noelle Saillant

  • Haitham S. Alabsi

  • Jarone Lee

  • Andrew Tomas Reisner

  • October 5, 2026

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Forecasting MAP Patterns to Anticipate Hypotension in ICUs

Overview

This pilot study evaluates a clinical decision support system (CDSS) designed to predict hypotension in ICU patients undergoing continuous vasopressor therapy. The CDSS demonstrated a 100% detection rate for hypotension clusters and predicted 91.7% of vasopressor dose increases.

Background

Hypotension in ICU patients is a significant concern, often leading to adverse outcomes. Previous analyses have shown that patients frequently experience cumulative hours of hypotension, typically defined as a mean arterial pressure (MAP) below 65 mmHg. Early detection and intervention are crucial to mitigate the risks associated with prolonged hypotension.

Data Highlights

MetricValue
Median hypotension duration per day119.7 min
Hypotension-cluster detection rate100%
Prediction of vasopressor dose increases91.7%
Positive predictive value for hypotension predictions58.2%

Key Findings

  • The CDSS detected every hypotension-cluster (100%) during early flickering hypotension.
  • It predicted 91.7% of vasopressor dose increases.
  • Before hypotension began, the CDSS predicted 44% of hypotension-clusters.
  • The median cumulative hypotension duration associated with positive predictions was 26.4 min.
  • Hypotension occurred for a median of 119.7 min per day in the study population.

Clinical Implications

The findings indicate that the CDSS could enhance early detection of hypotension in ICU settings.

Conclusion

The pilot evaluation of the CDSS indicates its effectiveness in predicting hypotension and vasopressor needs.

Related Resources & Content

  1. Faulkner et al., ClinicalTrials.gov, 2020 -- Forecasting MAP Patterns to Anticipate Hypotension
  2. Frontiers in Medicine — Machine learning model for predicting hypotension following continuous renal replacement therapy initiation in end-stage kidney disease patients: A SHAP-interpretable approach
  3. Intensive Care Medicine — The Impact of ICU Hypotension on Mortality and Morbidity Among Septic Patients During Hospitalization
  4. Frontiers in Anesthesiology — Impact of hypotension prediction index on mean arterial pressure and stroke volume index during pancreatic surgery: a retrospective pre-post observational pilot study
  5. Frontiers in Digital Health — Intra-Session recurrence in intradialytic hypotension prediction: evaluation implications and recurrence-aware modeling
  6. Machine learning model for predicting hypotension following continuous renal replacement therapy initiation in end-stage kidney disease patients
  7. The Impact of ICU Hypotension on Mortality and Morbidity Among Septic Patients During Hospitalization
  8. Impact of hypotension prediction index on mean arterial pressure and stroke volume index during pancreatic surgery
  9. Surviving Sepsis Campaign Adult Guidelines
  10. VA ICME-D-25-00526V1.2
  11. High versus Low Blood-Pressure Target in Patients with Septic Shock | New England Journal of Medicine
  12. Effect of Reduced Exposure to Vasopressors on 90-Day Mortality in Older Critically Ill Patients With Vasodilatory Hypotension: A Randomized Clinical Trial - PMC
  13. Efficacy of targeting high mean arterial pressure for older patients with septic shock (OPTPRESS): a multicentre, pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial - PMC
  14. Blood Pressure Targets for Adults with Vasodilatory Shock — An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis | NEJM Evidence
  15. Mortality effect of higher versus lower blood pressure targets in vasodilatory shock: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis | Critical Care | Springer Nature Link
  16. The relationship between ICU hypotension and in-hospital mortality and morbidity in septic patients - PMC
  17. Hypotension During Vasopressor Infusion Occurs in Predictable Clusters: A Multicenter Analysis.
  18. Early prediction of vasopressor initiation in ICU sepsis patients using an interpretable EHR-based ML model | BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making | Springer Nature Link
  19. Effect of a Machine Learning-Derived Early Warning Tool With Treatment Protocol on Hypotension During Cardiac Surgery and ICU Stay: The Hypotension Prediction 2 (HYPE-2) Randomized Clinical Trial.
  20. Prediction of hypotension events with physiologic vital sign signatures in the intensive care unit - PMC

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