Development and external validation of a 90-day mortality prediction model for comatose sepsis patients: impact of cerebrovascular disease and dementia - Report - MDSpire

Development and external validation of a 90-day mortality prediction model for comatose sepsis patients: impact of cerebrovascular disease and dementia

  • By

  • Yaoxi Tan

  • Yadong Shen

  • Yanting Zhang

  • July 2, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Mortality Prediction Model for Comatose Sepsis Patients

Overview

This study developed a 90-day mortality prediction model for comatose sepsis patients, identifying cerebrovascular disease and dementia as significant predictors.

Background

Comatose sepsis patients are at a heightened risk of mortality, yet the long-term prognostic factors influencing their outcomes remain inadequately defined. Understanding how neurological comorbidities, such as cerebrovascular disorders and dementia, affect mortality risk is crucial.

Data Highlights

VariableOdds Ratio (OR)
Age1.05
Base Excess0.85
PaO2 (per 10-unit decrease)1.04
BUN1.02
INR3.68
Cerebrovascular Disease2.60
Dementia4.64

Key Findings

  • Ninety-day mortality rate was 22.83% among comatose sepsis patients.
  • Cerebrovascular disease and dementia were identified as strong independent risk factors for mortality.
  • Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was not a significant independent predictor in the final model.
  • Lower GCS scores correlated with higher mortality in patients without cerebrovascular disease or dementia.
  • The model achieved a C-index of 0.81, outperforming SOFA, APACHE II, and SAPS II.
  • External validation confirmed good transportability with a C-index of 0.75.

Clinical Implications

The findings highlight the importance of considering neurological comorbidities when assessing mortality risk in comatose sepsis patients.

Conclusion

Cerebrovascular disease and dementia are strong predictors of 90-day mortality and significantly modulate GCS prognostic value.

Related Resources & Content

  1. Frontiers in Medicine, 2026 -- Establishment and internal-external validation of a 28-day mortality prediction model for septic shock patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction
  2. Frontiers in Medicine, 2026 -- Prediction models for mortality in patients with sepsis: a systematic review and meta-analysis
  3. Frontiers in Pediatrics, 2026 -- Development and validation of a clinical nomogram for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality in children with moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury
  4. Intensive Care Medicine -- Forecasting Favorable Neurological Recovery in Comatose Cardiac Arrest Survivors: A Comprehensive Review
  5. The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) | Critical Care Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network
  6. Factors contributing to sepsis-associated encephalopathy: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis - PMC
  7. Frontiers | Association of dementia with the 28-day mortality of sepsis: an observational and Mendelian randomization study
  8. The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) | Critical Care Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network
  9. Factors contributing to sepsis-associated encephalopathy: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis - PMC
  10. Frontiers | Association of dementia with the 28-day mortality of sepsis: an observational and Mendelian randomization study

Original Source(s)

Development and external validation of a 90-day mortality prediction model for comatose sepsis patients: impact of cerebrovascular disease and dementia

  • by Yaoxi Tan, Yadong Shen, Yanting Zhang

  • July 2, 2026

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