Clinical Report: Development of a Nomogram to Assess Long-Term Risk of Coronary Artery Lesions in Patients with Kawasaki Disease

Overview

This study developed a nomogram to predict the long-term risk of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in pediatric patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). Key predictors identified include male sex, prolonged hospitalization, and laboratory findings such as decreased hemoglobin and hyponatremia.

Background

Kawasaki disease is a significant cause of acquired heart disease in children, with coronary artery lesions being a major complication that can lead to severe cardiovascular events. Early identification of patients at risk for CALs is crucial for timely intervention and management. This study addresses the need for a reliable predictive tool to assist clinicians in assessing long-term risks associated with KD.

Data Highlights

Key Findings

• Male sex is a significant predictor of long-term CAL risk in KD patients.
• Prolonged hospitalization and fever are associated with increased CAL risk.
• Laboratory findings such as decreased hemoglobin and hyponatremia are critical risk factors.
• The nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.801 in the training dataset and 0.796 in the validation dataset.
• Decision curve analysis indicated a high net benefit of the nomogram model.

Clinical Implications

The nomogram developed in this study can aid clinicians in identifying pediatric patients with Kawasaki disease who are at higher risk for long-term coronary artery lesions. By utilizing this tool, healthcare providers can enhance monitoring and management strategies for affected patients.

Conclusion

The nomogram demonstrates high accuracy in predicting long-term CAL risk in Kawasaki disease patients, providing a valuable resource for clinicians in managing this condition effectively.

Related Resources & Content

1. Frontiers in Pediatrics, 2026 -- A predictive model and nomogram for coronary artery injury in Kawasaki disease based on laboratory indicators: a retrospective study
2. Pediatric Cardiology, 2024 -- Evaluation of Risk Assessment Models for Predicting Coronary Artery Dilation in Kawasaki Disease within a North American Population
3. Pediatric Cardiology, 2026 -- Evaluation of Kawasaki Disease Risk Assessment Models in a 30-Year Study from a Spanish Region
4. Update on Diagnosis and Management of Kawasaki Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association, 2024
5. Frontiers in Medicine — Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Incident Heart Failure and All-cause Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A 3-year Follow-up Study
6. Outcomes Associated with Giant Coronary Artery Aneurysms after Kawasaki Disease: A Single-Center United States Experience
7. A nomogram for predicting coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease
8. Update on Diagnosis and Management of Kawasaki Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association