Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses’ supply and wages - Report - MDSpire

Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses’ supply and wages

  • By

  • Raffaele Vardavas

  • Pedro Nascimento De Lima

  • Lawrence Baker

  • Christina Crowley

  • Katherine Carman

  • Andrew M. Parker

  • Mahshid Abir

  • June 12, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Assessing the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Nursing Workforce Availability and Compensation

Overview

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted nursing workforce availability and compensation, exacerbating existing shortages and altering wage dynamics. A behavioral economic model was developed to simulate these effects, revealing critical insights into the interplay between nurse supply, wages, and pandemic-related pressures.

Background

The nursing workforce is essential for effective healthcare delivery, particularly during public health crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has intensified pre-existing nursing shortages and created new challenges related to working conditions and compensation. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective staffing policies and ensuring adequate healthcare delivery in future emergencies.

Data Highlights

The model calibrated using 15,000 prior runs successfully reproduced observed dynamics for nurse workforce participation and wages during the pandemic.

Key Findings

  • The pandemic exacerbated pre-existing nursing shortages due to increased occupational stress and deteriorating working conditions.
  • Federal relief funds aimed at mitigating staffing shortfalls have had mixed effects on healthcare labor markets.
  • Unrestricted reimbursement for travel nurses can reduce immediate staffing gaps but may lead to over-reliance on contract labor.
  • Stringent requirements for relief fund applications can deter rural and safety-net hospitals from accessing necessary resources.
  • The model provides a framework for future research on the effectiveness of pandemic relief programs and staffing policies.

Clinical Implications

Healthcare administrators should consider the implications of staffing policies and relief fund designs on nurse availability and patient care quality. Strategies that balance immediate staffing needs with sustainable workforce practices are essential for maintaining healthcare delivery during crises.

Conclusion

The findings underscore the importance of understanding the relationship between epidemiological trends and nursing workforce dynamics to inform future healthcare strategies. This model serves as a foundational tool for anticipating workforce challenges in public health emergencies.

Related Resources & Content

  1. BMC Psychiatry (Springer), 2025 -- Workplace violence predicts depression and anxiety in nurses: a multi-center longitudinal study in China
  2. BMC Psychiatry (Springer), 2025 -- Three years of pandemic stress and staffing challenges: a retrospective qualitative study of COVID-19 impacts on frontline healthcare workers’ mental health and wellbeing
  3. Journal of Medical Internet Research (JMIR), 2026 -- Evaluating Nursing Work Systems and Identifying Barriers for Robotic Technology Integration: Observational Study
  4. National Performance Goal #12: Health Professional Resource Management | Joint Commission
  5. Hospital Nurse Understaffing and Patient Mortality, Readmission, and Length of Stay | Health Policy | JAMA Network
  6. DIGITAL HEALTH — Telenurses’ work environment - Relationships between working conditions, remote work from home or not and the outcomes job satisfaction, burnout and thriving
  7. National Performance Goal #12: Health Professional Resource Management | Joint Commission
  8. Hospital Nurse Understaffing and Patient Mortality, Readmission, and Length of Stay | Health Policy | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network
  9. New AHA Report: Hospitals Face Increased Challenges and Financial Pressures as They Care for Patients | AHA

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