Clinical Report: Homicide Deaths in Women Aged 15–44 and State Abortion Policies

Overview

This population-level quasi-experimental study examined monthly homicide mortality among US females aged 15 to 44 years from 2016 through 2024, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the period after Dobbs. The supplied results report that homicide trajectories diverged after Dobbs: fitted rates in states with sustained total or near-total abortion bans were estimated to be 7% above the modeled counterfactual in 2023 and 15% above it in 2024, corresponding to approximately 48 and 87 excess deaths, respectively.

Background

Homicide is consistently among the five leading causes of death for US women of reproductive age and occurs at higher rates than in other high-income countries. The COVID-19 pandemic coincided with increases in external-cause mortality and changes in access to social services and mobility, while homicide has also been an important cause of pregnancy-associated death. After Dobbs, state abortion policies changed substantially, against a broader backdrop of geographic differences in mortality. Prior research cited in the article links abortion restrictions with violence, including intimate partner homicide, but the overlapping timing of the pandemic and policy changes complicates interpretation of trends.

Data Highlights

Key Findings

• The study assessed national homicide patterns before, during, and after the COVID-19 surge and tested whether post-surge trends differed between states with sustained total or near-total abortion bans after Dobbs and states without such bans.
• The comparative interrupted time series model allowed COVID-19-era dynamics to vary across policy groups, addressing the temporal overlap between the pandemic and post-Dobbs policy changes.
• In the supplied web research context, fitted homicide rates in ban states were estimated to be 7% above the modeled counterfactual in 2023 and 15% above it in 2024.
• The corresponding estimated excess burden was approximately 48 deaths in 2023 and 87 deaths in 2024.
• Earlier research summarized in the article associated each additional targeted regulation of abortion providers before Dobbs with a 4.4% increase in total homicide and a 3.4% increase in intimate partner violence–related homicide among females aged 10–44 years.
• The policy-stratified analysis excluded Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and South Carolina because their partial restrictions produced partially exposed or legally fluid policy environments.

Clinical Implications

The study provides population-level estimates of homicide mortality patterns by state abortion-policy environment; it does not establish individual-level causation or provide a clinical intervention evaluation. The article situates these findings alongside prior evidence on violence and pregnancy-associated mortality, but the supplied material does not specify a clinical screening or treatment recommendation.

Conclusion

The reported analysis found post-Dobbs divergence in homicide mortality trajectories for women aged 15–44 years, with higher fitted rates than the modeled counterfactual in states with sustained total or near-total abortion bans. These estimates should be interpreted in the context of the study’s population-level observational design and the overlapping pandemic and policy periods.

Related Resources & Content

1. JAMA Network Open, 2026 — Homicide Mortality Among Female Adolescents and Women Aged 15 to 44 Years and US State Abortion Policies
2. CDC, MMWR, 2026 — Surveillance for Violent Deaths — National Violent Death Reporting System, 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, 2023
3. JAMA Network Open — Adolescent Suicidality After State-Level Total Abortion Bans
4. MDSpire News — Divorce Laws Linked to Pregnancy Homicide Rates
5. JAMA Network Open — Policies of Healthcare Systems in Response to State-Level Abortion Limitations in the United States
6. MDSpire News — Post-Dobbs Mortality Trends Remain Unclear
7. Homicide Mortality Among Female Adolescents and Women Aged 15 to 44 Years and US State Abortion Policies
8. Surveillance for Violent Deaths — National Violent Death Reporting System, 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, 2023
9. Final Recommendation Statement: Intimate Partner Violence and Caregiver Abuse of Older or Vulnerable Adults: Screening | United States Preventive Services Taskforce