Estimation of populations at risk for severe influenza and vaccination coverage in Mexico, 2010–2021 - Report - MDSpire
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Assessment of High-Risk Populations for Severe Influenza and Vaccination Rates in Mexico from 2010 to 2021

  • By

  • Arturo Galindo-Fraga

  • Gerardo Luna-Casas

  • Ricardo Gasca-Pineda

  • Gilberto Sánchez-González

  • July 21, 2026

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Clinical Report: Assessment of High-Risk Populations for Severe Influenza in Mexico

Overview

This study estimates the size of populations eligible for influenza vaccination in Mexico and evaluates vaccination coverage gaps among at-risk populations from 2010 to 2021. Approximately 12.5 million vaccine doses were administered in 2021.

Background

Influenza poses a substantial risk of morbidity and mortality, particularly among individuals with underlying health conditions. Understanding vaccination coverage among high-risk populations is crucial for public health planning.

Data Highlights

From 2010 to 2021, the estimated number of individuals at high risk for severe influenza in Mexico was approximately 30 million. Vaccination coverage among these populations was estimated at only 40% in 2021, indicating significant gaps in immunization efforts. The analysis also revealed that only 25% of individuals with underlying conditions received the vaccine during this period.

Key Findings

  • Healthcare service utilization among at-risk populations was consistently lower than notified cases and prevalence estimates.

  • Vaccination coverage varied significantly across different at-risk populations and remained incomplete from 2010 to 2021.

  • In 2021, around 12.5 million influenza vaccine doses were administered.

  • Forecasting analyses indicated a progressive increase in healthcare demand among at-risk populations over time.

  • Gaps exist between estimated at-risk populations, diagnosed individuals, healthcare utilization, and vaccination coverage.

Clinical Implications

Healthcare providers should be aware of the gaps in influenza vaccination coverage among high-risk populations in Mexico.

Conclusion

The study identifies gaps between estimated at-risk populations, diagnosed individuals, healthcare utilization, and vaccination coverage in Mexico.

Related Resources & Content

  1. JAMA Network Open, 2024 — Influenza Vaccine and Associated Infection and Death in California, 2024 to 2025

  2. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2018 — Influenza Vaccine-Averted Illness in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay During 2013–2018

  3. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2018 — Annual Estimation of Seasonal Influenza Burden in 6 South American Countries

  4. JAMA Network Open, 2023 — Influenza Vaccination Trends Among Children and Adolescents, 2017-2023

  5. Lineamientos Temporada invernal 2025-2026_Vf, 2025 — National Guidance for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

  6. WHO, 2024 — Clinical practice guidelines for influenza

  7. Lineamientos Temporada invernal 2025-2026_Vf

  8. Clinical practice guidelines for influenza

  9. Efficacy of influenza vaccines and its relationship with immunological surrogate endpoints: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trial - ScienceDirect

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