Predicting Ordinal Clinical Outcomes in At-Risk Mental States: A Multimodal Approach - Report - MDSpire

Predicting Ordinal Clinical Outcomes in At-Risk Mental States: A Multimodal Approach

  • By

  • Nagasawa, Kazuya

  • Higuchi, Yuko

  • Kaneko, Naohito

  • Miyazu, Kensei

  • Shimataki, Shunsuke

  • Nishiyama, Shimako

  • Akasaki, Yukiko

  • Izumi, Marino

  • Tsujii, Noa

  • Takahashi, Tsutomu

  • April 13, 2026

  • 0 min

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Forecasting Clinical Outcomes in Individuals with At-Risk Mental States

Overview

This study identifies predictors of multilevel clinical outcomes in individuals with at-risk mental states (ARMS) using a multimodal framework. Key findings indicate that neurophysiological, clinical, and functional factors can predict future clinical trajectories in ARMS.

Background

Understanding clinical outcomes in ARMS is crucial as these outcomes are heterogeneous and extend beyond simple transition to psychosis. Previous research has largely focused on predicting transitions, neglecting other important stages like remission and persistent symptoms. This study aims to fill that gap by examining multiple outcome stages through integrated neurobiological markers.

Data Highlights

PredictorOutcome Association
Reduced dMMN amplitudeWorse clinical outcomes
Greater severity of unusual thought contentWorse clinical outcomes
Poor cognitive functioning (Schizophrenia Cognition Rating Scale)Worse clinical outcomes

Key Findings

  • Reduced baseline dMMN amplitude is associated with worse clinical outcomes.
  • Greater severity of attenuated positive symptoms, particularly unusual thought content, correlates with poorer outcomes.
  • Poor cognitive functioning related to daily living is linked to worse clinical trajectories.
  • The study utilized a multimodal framework incorporating clinical, functional, and electrophysiological measures.
  • Clinical outcomes were classified into four categories: remission, symptomatic, prodromal progression, and psychotic.

Clinical Implications

The findings suggest that clinicians should consider a range of neurophysiological and functional factors when assessing individuals with ARMS. Early identification of at-risk individuals may facilitate tailored intervention strategies.

Conclusion

This study highlights the potential for predicting clinical outcomes in ARMS through a multimodal approach, emphasizing the importance of early stratification for personalized care.

Related Resources & Content

  1. npj Digital Medicine, 2025 -- Integrated Machine Learning Approaches for Video-Based Assessment of Mental Health with a Single Question
  2. npj Digital Medicine, 2025 -- Network-Based Computational Models for Predicting and Managing Mental Health Progressions in Digital Platforms
  3. Frontiers in Psychiatry, 2026 -- Task-aligned outcome learning in psychiatry: reducing endpoint dilution
  4. Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) circa 2024: Synoptic analysis and synthesis of contemporary treatment guidelines - ScienceDirect
  5. PSYSCAN multi-centre study: baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of the clinical high risk for psychosis sample | Schizophrenia
  6. Clinical prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria | Schizophrenia
  7. npj Digital Medicine — Assessing Youth Mental Health Needs Through an Adaptive Digital Tool: Findings from a Cross-Sectional Analysis
  8. Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) circa 2024: Synoptic analysis and synthesis of contemporary treatment guidelines - ScienceDirect
  9. PSYSCAN multi-centre study: baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of the clinical high risk for psychosis sample | Schizophrenia
  10. Clinical prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria | Schizophrenia

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