Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for poor ovarian response in assisted reproductive technology - Report - MDSpire

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for poor ovarian response in assisted reproductive technology

  • By

  • Xin Xin

  • Zhaoxia Cheng

  • Ting Hu

  • Yi Guo

  • Nan Li

  • Junbo Zhao

  • Shuaishuai Guo

  • June 15, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Predictive Model for Inadequate Ovarian Response in ART

Overview

This study developed and validated a predictive model for poor ovarian response (POR) in patients undergoing Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART). The final model identified key predictors.

Background

Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is essential for infertility management, yet poor ovarian response (POR) remains a significant challenge. Current diagnostic criteria do not adequately predict POR.

Data Highlights

PredictorModel TypeSignificance
AMHStepwise Logistic RegressionSignificant
Basal FSHStepwise Logistic RegressionSignificant
BMIStepwise Logistic RegressionSignificant
Antral Follicle CountStepwise Logistic RegressionSignificant

Key Findings

  • The study included 1,789 patients undergoing IVF/ICSI with a GnRH antagonist protocol.
  • Four prediction models were developed and compared, with stepwise logistic regression being the optimal model.
  • Key predictors of POR identified were AMH, basal FSH, BMI, and antral follicle count.
  • The model demonstrated high discriminatory ability and good calibration across various datasets.
  • A nomogram was developed.

Clinical Implications

The predictive model can assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk for poor ovarian response before treatment begins, allowing for tailored interventions. The nomogram provides an intuitive tool for risk assessment in clinical practice.

Conclusion

This study presents a robust predictive model for poor ovarian response in ART, enhancing decision-making and potentially improving patient outcomes through personalized treatment strategies.

Related Resources & Content

  1. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 2026 -- Development and internal validation of a post-retrieval machine learning models for OHSS risk stratification in assisted reproductive technology: an exploratory study
  2. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 2026 -- Assessment indicators of ovarian response during controlled ovarian stimulation: influencing factors and clinical value
  3. ESHRE guideline: ovarian stimulation for IVF/ICSI: an update in 2025 - PMC
  4. The best ovarian reserve marker to predict ovarian response following controlled ovarian hyperstimulation: a systematic review and meta-analysis - PMC
  5. BMC Psychiatry (Springer) — Development and psychometric evaluation of a questionnaire addressing the psychosocial needs of oocyte recipient women
  6. Frontiers in Medicine — Endometrial receptivity characteristics in patients with repeated implantation failure: a study using LASSO regression and Bayesian generalized linear model analysis
  7. ESHRE guideline: ovarian stimulation for IVF/ICSI: an update in 2025 - PMC
  8. The best ovarian reserve marker to predict ovarian response following controlled ovarian hyperstimulation: a systematic review and meta-analysis - PMC
  9. Frontiers | Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for poor ovarian response in assisted reproductive technology

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