Predicting preoperative axillary lymph node metastasis to guide surgical decisions in invasive breast cancer - Report - MDSpire

Predicting preoperative axillary lymph node metastasis to guide surgical decisions in invasive breast cancer

  • By

  • Qi Xin

  • Zhilin Yang

  • May 29, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Forecasting Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis Prior to Surgery

Overview

This study evaluates a nomogram for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) in invasive breast cancer (IBC) patients. The model integrates various clinical indicators and demonstrates moderate predictive performance.

Background

Accurate identification of ALNM is crucial in managing invasive breast cancer, as it influences surgical decisions and treatment strategies. Current methods, such as sentinel lymph node biopsy, have limitations, including false-negative rates.

Data Highlights

GroupALNM RateAUC
Training31.4%0.741
Validation27.4%0.705

Key Findings

  • ALNM rates were 31.4% in the training group and 27.4% in the validation group.
  • Independent risk factors for ALNM included tumor size, circumscribe margin, ultrasonic lymph node status, WBC, ER, and BI-RADS.
  • The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.741 in the training group and 0.705 in the validation group.
  • Ultrasonic lymph node status alone had AUCs of 0.620 and 0.627 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

Clinical Implications

The nomogram can assist clinicians in preoperative risk stratification for ALNM in IBC patients.

Conclusion

The integration of clinicopathological, ultrasonic, and serological indicators in the nomogram enhances the prediction of ALNM.

Related Resources & Content

  1. BJS Commission Report on Surgical Approaches to Axillary Management in Breast Cancer, BJS, 2023 -- Surgical Approaches to Axillary Management
  2. Reducing the Risk of Lymphedema in Patients With Cancer, The ASCO Post, 2020 -- Reducing the Risk of Lymphedema
  3. Axillary Recurrence With or Without ALND in Patients With Residual Micrometastases After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer, The ASCO Post, 2026 -- Axillary Recurrence
  4. Expert Point of View: Seema A. Khan, MD, The ASCO Post, 2013 -- Expert Point of View
  5. Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Early-Stage Breast Cancer: ASCO Guideline Update, Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2025 -- ASCO Guideline Update
  6. Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Early-Stage Breast Cancer: ASCO Guideline Update | Journal of Clinical Oncology
  7. Radiation Field Design in the ACOSOG Z0011 (Alliance) Trial - PMC
  8. Targeted axillary dissection - UpToDate

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