Influenza Vaccine-Averted Illness in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay During 2013–2018: A Standardized Approach to Assess the Value of Vaccination - Report - MDSpire
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Influenza Vaccine-Averted Illness in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay During 2013–2018: A Standardized Approach to Assess the Value of Vaccination
Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Impact on Illness in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay (2013–2018)
Overview
This study estimated the number of influenza illnesses averted by vaccination programs in Chile and Paraguay from 2013 to 2018, and modeled potential benefits in Guyana. Vaccination notably reduced nonhospitalized, medically attended, and hospitalized influenza cases among young children and older adults in countries with immunization programs.
Background
Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, with substantial healthcare and economic burdens. Vaccination is a key preventive strategy recommended by the WHO, targeting groups such as young children and older adults. Chile and Paraguay have established influenza vaccination programs with moderate coverage, while Guyana currently lacks a national program. Estimating vaccine-averted illness helps inform policy and public health strategies.
Data Highlights
Country
Population Group
Vaccine Coverage (%)
Annual Mean Averted Nonhospitalized Illnesses
Annual Mean Averted Medically Attended Illnesses
Annual Mean Averted Hospitalizations
Chile
Children 6–23 months
68
14,617
9,426
328
Chile
Older adults ≥65 years
59
83,429
37,079
1,390
Paraguay
Children 6–23 months
28
1,115
719
25
Paraguay
Older adults ≥60 years
36
3,932
1,748
66
Guyana (hypothetical)
Children <5 years
30
1,496
971
10
Guyana (hypothetical)
Adults ≥65 years
30
568
257
10
Key Findings
In Chile, vaccinating 68% of children aged 6–23 months averted an annual mean of 14,617 nonhospitalized and 328 hospitalized influenza illnesses.
Vaccinating 59% of older adults in Chile prevented approximately 83,429 nonhospitalized and 1,390 hospitalized influenza cases annually.
In Paraguay, lower vaccine coverage (28% in children, 36% in older adults) still averted thousands of influenza illnesses and dozens of hospitalizations each year.
Guyana, without a national influenza vaccination program, could potentially avert hundreds to thousands of influenza illnesses annually if 30% coverage were achieved in children under 5 and adults over 65.
The study utilized a static compartmental model combining surveillance data, vaccine coverage, and effectiveness to estimate vaccine impact on influenza illness burden.
Clinical Implications
These findings underscore the substantial public health benefits of influenza vaccination programs in reducing illness and hospitalizations among vulnerable populations. Increasing vaccine coverage, especially in countries with lower uptake or no current programs, could significantly mitigate influenza burden. Clinicians and policymakers should advocate for expanded vaccination efforts targeting young children and older adults.
Conclusion
Influenza vaccination programs in Chile and Paraguay have averted tens of thousands of illnesses and thousands of hospitalizations annually among key populations. Implementing and scaling vaccination in countries like Guyana could yield proportional health benefits.
References
Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and REVELAC-i Networks -- Influenza Vaccine Impact Assessment (2013–2018)
by Jorge H Jara, Sergio Loayza, Francisco Nogareda, Paula Couto, Miguel Angel Descalzo, Anna N Chard, María Fernanda Olivares Barraza, Natalia Vergara Mallegas, Rodrigo A Fasce, Marta Von Horoch, Silvia Battaglia, Elena Penayo, Chavely Montserrat Dominguez, Cynthia Vazquez, Rainier Escalada, Janice Woolford, Fabiana Michel, Rafael Chacon, Ashley Fowlkes, Laura Castro, Martha Velandia-Gonzalez, Marc Rondy, Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner, Stefano Tempia, Daniel Salas
