Risk factors and prediction model for necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants with gestational age ≤ 32 weeks: a retrospective cohort study - Report - MDSpire

Risk factors and prediction model for necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants with gestational age ≤ 32 weeks: a retrospective cohort study

  • By

  • Hao Li

  • GuiXiang Zeng

  • YaoXun Wu

  • Lin Cheng

  • LianFang Jing

  • HanLu Zhong

  • Yu Xie

  • Zhe Wei

  • KeMou Wu

  • Jun Fu

  • XiuLi Deng

  • HuaBo Tang

  • RenZhuang Huang

  • YanTing Lin

  • MingJie Lin

  • ShaSha Wei

  • DongMei Jiang

  • Yan Li

  • June 2, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Report: Identifying Risk Factors and Developing a Predictive Model for NEC

Overview

This study developed a predictive model for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) risk in preterm infants born at or before 32 weeks gestation. The model demonstrated good discriminatory power and calibration.

Background

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a severe gastrointestinal condition primarily affecting preterm infants, associated with high morbidity and mortality. The incidence of NEC increases with decreasing gestational age, making it a critical concern in neonatal care. Understanding risk factors and developing predictive models can aid in early identification and management of at-risk infants.

Data Highlights

MetricValue
Incidence of NEC12.27% (61/497)
AUC (Training Set)0.917
AUC (Test Set)0.906
Hosmer-Lemeshow Test (Test Set)χ2 = 3.761, P = 0.807

Key Findings

  • The incidence of NEC among preterm infants with gestational age ≤32 weeks was 12.27%.
  • Independent risk factors for NEC included intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS), sepsis, and invasive ventilator use.
  • A higher 5-minute Apgar score was identified as a protective factor against NEC.
  • The predictive model demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability with AUC values of 0.917 and 0.906 for the training and test sets, respectively.
  • The model showed good calibration with no significant difference between predicted and observed probabilities (P = 0.807).

Clinical Implications

The predictive model can assist clinicians in identifying preterm infants at high risk for NEC, enabling timely interventions. Understanding the identified risk factors may guide clinical decision-making and improve outcomes for this vulnerable population.

Conclusion

The developed predictive model for NEC risk in preterm infants shows good discriminatory power and calibration.

Related Resources & Content

  1. Author(s)/Org, Source, Year -- Title
  2. Author(s)/Org, Source, Year -- Title
  3. Author(s)/Org, Source, Year -- Title
  4. Author(s)/Org, Source, Year -- Title
  5. Frontiers in Medicine — A Three-Factor Nomogram Predicts the Use of Invasive Mechanical Ventilation within 72 Hours in Preterm Infants
  6. NICHD NEC Working Group Report
  7. Annals of Surgery
  8. Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight infants: a meta-analysis

Original Source(s)

Risk factors and prediction model for necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants with gestational age ≤ 32 weeks: a retrospective cohort study

  • by Hao Li, GuiXiang Zeng, YaoXun Wu, Lin Cheng, LianFang Jing, HanLu Zhong, Yu Xie, Zhe Wei, KeMou Wu, Jun Fu, XiuLi Deng, HuaBo Tang, RenZhuang Huang, YanTing Lin, MingJie Lin, ShaSha Wei, DongMei Jiang, Yan Li

  • June 2, 2026

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