Clinical Scorecard: What Growth Is Projected for U.S. Health Spending?
At a Glance
Category
Detail
Condition
U.S. national health spending projections
Key Mechanisms
Policy modifications and shifts in health care utilization are projected to moderate spending growth, including Medicaid changes enacted through the 2025 budget reconciliation law and expiration of enhanced ACA Marketplace premium tax credits in 2025. Over the longer term, Medicare prescription drug provisions and inflation rebates are expected to reduce Medicare prescription drug spending growth.
Target Population
U.S. national health spending
Care Setting
National health expenditure projections
Key Highlights
Health spending is projected to reach $6.0 trillion in 2026, or 18.7% of the economy.
Hospitals are projected to account for the largest share of spending in 2026, at $1.9 trillion.
Spending is projected to rise to $9.0 trillion by 2034, representing more than one-fifth of the U.S. economy.
Annual spending growth is projected at 6.3% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027.
Policy changes and shifts in utilization are projected to moderate spending growth. Over the longer term, the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare prescription drug provisions and inflation rebates are expected to reduce Medicare prescription drug spending growth, despite faster projected Medicare spending growth in the near term.
Guideline-Based Recommendations
Diagnosis
Management
Monitoring & Follow-up
The Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker is an information hub for this analysis.
Risks
Patient & Prescribing Data
No patient-level treatment or prescribing guidance is provided. The source says the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare prescription drug provisions and inflation rebates are expected to reduce Medicare prescription drug spending growth over the longer term, despite faster projected Medicare spending growth in the near term.
