Mechanistic constraints in dengue severity: a systematic review with evidence stratification and agent-based evaluation of logical sufficiency
By
Roberto Navarro Quiroz
Katherine Escorcia Lindo
Andrea Jaruffe Pinilla
Yiris Diaz-Olmos
Noelia Geribaldi-Dóldan
Cecilia Fernández-Ponce
Eloina Zarate Peñata
Yesit Bello Lemus
Lisandro Pacheco Lugo
Leonardo Pacheco Londoño
Antonio Acosta-Hoyos
Nataly Galan Freyle
Elkin Navarro Quiroz
June 19, 2026
Clinical Scorecard: Understanding Mechanisms Influencing Dengue Severity: A Systematic Review with Evidence Stratification and Agent-Based Assessment of Logical Coherence
At a Glance
Category Detail
Condition Severe Dengue
Key Mechanisms NS1-mediated endothelial injury, glycocalyx disruption, inflammatory myeloid activation, coagulation/platelet abnormalities
Target Population Pediatric and immunocompromised populations
Care Setting Clinical research and systematic review
Key Highlights
Severe dengue is characterized by plasma leakage, thrombocytopenia, and hemorrhage. Three mechanism families reached C1_conditional evidence: NS1-linked vascular permeability, endothelial glycocalyx/barrier disruption, and myeloid effector activation. No mechanism family was eligible for quantitative pooling due to insufficient outcome harmonization. The ABM demonstrated that NS1, barrier, and myeloid components can generate a connected endothelial-barrier failure analog. Claim escalation requires longitudinal cohorts and functional perturbation assays.
Guideline-Based Recommendations
Diagnosis
Monitor for signs of severe dengue including plasma leakage and thrombocytopenia.
Management
Focus on understanding the role of NS1 and myeloid activation in severe cases.
Monitoring & Follow-up
Track NS1 levels, endothelial barrier injury markers, and myeloid effector proxies.
Risks
Increased mortality risk in pediatric and immunocompromised populations.
Patient & Prescribing Data
Individuals infected with dengue virus, particularly those at risk for severe disease.
Current evidence does not support the efficacy of rupatadine or oseltamivir in reducing severe dengue symptoms.
Clinical Best Practices
Utilize a stratified evidence framework for mechanistic claims in dengue research. Incorporate longitudinal studies to better understand the transition from uncomplicated to severe dengue.
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