Development and validation of a prognostic model for stage IV breast cancer based on primary tumor resection with machine learning methods: retrospective cohort study - Scorecard - MDSpire

Development and validation of a prognostic model for stage IV breast cancer based on primary tumor resection with machine learning methods: retrospective cohort study

  • By

  • Yaoling Wang

  • Jingyu Hou

  • Xinhai Chen

  • Hongyi Zhu

  • Yuan Yao

  • Wenjing Zhao

  • Shuangwei Mo

  • Zhenchong Xiong

  • Anli Yang

  • Wei Liu

  • Yuanhui Lai

  • Weikai Xiao

  • July 13, 2026

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Clinical Scorecard: Creation and assessment of a prognostic model for stage IV breast cancer utilizing primary tumor resection and machine learning techniques: a retrospective cohort analysis

At a Glance

CategoryDetail
ConditionStage IV Breast Cancer
Key MechanismsPrimary Tumor Resection (PTR) and machine learning for survival prediction
Target PopulationFemale patients diagnosed with stage IV breast cancer
Care SettingClinical evaluation and prognostic assessment

Key Highlights

  • PTR is associated with improved overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in stage IV breast cancer patients.
  • The Support Vector Machine (SVM) model demonstrated high accuracy in predicting survival outcomes.
  • Patients with tumors ≤5 cm, N2 status, or HER2 overexpression showed better survival after PTR.
  • Trimodality therapy combining PTR, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy yielded the best survival outcomes.
  • A user-friendly web application was developed for clinical use of the prognostic model.

Guideline-Based Recommendations

Diagnosis

  • Utilize SEER database for clinicopathological and survival information.

Management

  • Consider PTR for select patients with stage IV breast cancer based on tumor size, nodal status, and HER2 status.

Monitoring & Follow-up

  • Employ machine learning models to predict survival outcomes and assist in clinical decision-making.

Risks

  • Assess potential risks associated with PTR in the context of metastatic disease.

Patient & Prescribing Data

Female patients diagnosed with stage IV breast cancer from 2005 to 2015.

PTR may confer survival benefits in specific subgroups of patients.

Clinical Best Practices

  • Utilize machine learning models to identify candidates for PTR.
  • Incorporate clinical indicators such as tumor size and HER2 status in treatment planning.
  • Implement a multidisciplinary approach involving surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy.

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