Development and internal validation of a risk prediction model for ipsilateral upper-limb lymphedema following breast cancer surgery
By
Yufei Fan
Gaofeng Yang
Yumeng Zeng
Yanfei Lu
Fan Feng
Xiudi Wang
June 3, 2026
Clinical Scorecard: Creation and internal assessment of a predictive model for ipsilateral upper-limb lymphedema after breast cancer surgery
At a Glance
Category Detail
Condition Breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) Key Mechanisms Impaired lymphatic transport capacity following lymphatic injury or obstruction from axillary surgery and/or regional irradiation. Target Population Patients undergoing breast cancer surgery. Care Setting Oncology and surgical settings.
Key Highlights
11.5% of patients developed BCRL post-surgery. Nomogram includes surgery type, pectoral nodes dissection, number of harvested lymph nodes, and N stage. Model demonstrated excellent discriminative ability with AUC of 0.964. Calibration analysis indicated residual overfitting. Nomogram provides favorable net benefit relative to treat-all and treat-none strategies. Guideline-Based Recommendations
Diagnosis
Use clinically relevant variables for predicting BCRL. Management
Consider early preventive interventions for high-risk patients. Monitoring & Follow-up
Identify patients who warrant closer surveillance and preventive counseling. Risks
Higher risk associated with pectoral nodes dissection, higher N stage, and greater number of harvested lymph nodes. Patient & Prescribing Data
234 patients undergoing breast cancer surgery.
Breast-conserving surgery is associated with a lower risk of BCRL.
Clinical Best Practices
Utilize the nomogram as a supportive risk-stratification aid. Focus on early postoperative prediction and surveillance. Related Resources & Content
