Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting cardiac autonomic neuropathy in patients with diabetes
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By
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Binhui Jia
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Zhuyi Jiang
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Xuexian Wen
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Mingming Yang
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Jun Wang
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June 5, 2026
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Clinical Scorecard: Creation and assessment of a nomogram for forecasting cardiac autonomic neuropathy in individuals with diabetes
At a Glance
| Category | Detail |
| Condition | Diabetic Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy (DCAN) |
| Key Mechanisms | Damage to autonomic nerve fibers innervating the cardiovascular system, disrupting heart rate control and hemodynamic regulation. |
| Target Population | Patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. |
| Care Setting | Clinical settings, particularly endocrinology departments. |
Key Highlights
- Prevalence of DCAN in the study population was 45.0%.
- Seven independent predictors identified: history of diabetic retinopathy or kidney disease, diabetes duration, age, heart rate, fasting plasma glucose, and HbA1c.
- Logistic Regression model showed the highest sensitivity (77.0%) and was selected as the optimal prediction tool.
- A nomogram was developed for individualized risk assessment.
- The model demonstrated good calibration and potential clinical utility.
Guideline-Based Recommendations
Diagnosis
- Use cardiovascular autonomic reflex tests (CARTs) for diagnosing DCAN.
Management
- Implement early risk assessment and personalized clinical management based on the nomogram.
Monitoring & Follow-up
- Regularly assess patients with diabetes for signs of DCAN using the predictive model.
Risks
- Patients with DCAN have a significantly higher 5-year mortality risk compared to those without autonomic dysfunction.
Patient & Prescribing Data
453 patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes.
The nomogram can facilitate early identification and management of patients at risk for DCAN.
Clinical Best Practices
- Utilize the developed nomogram for screening patients with diabetes for DCAN.
- Incorporate routine assessment of identified predictors in clinical practice.
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