Development and validation of a machine learning model for sperm DNA fragmentation rate in infertile men: a multicenter retrospective study - Scorecard - MDSpire

Development and validation of a machine learning model for sperm DNA fragmentation rate in infertile men: a multicenter retrospective study

  • By

  • Ke Wang

  • Jinxia Zheng

  • Xuanxuan Ge

  • Jie Bai

  • Mengmeng Ma

  • Ningxin Qin

  • Xin Huang

  • Hui Jiang

  • You Zhang

  • June 22, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Scorecard: Creation and assessment of a machine learning-based model to predict sperm DNA fragmentation rates in men with infertility: a retrospective multicenter analysis

At a Glance

CategoryDetail
ConditionSperm DNA fragmentation index (DFI) in male infertility
Key MechanismsInfluenced by clinical and semen parameters, lifestyle factors, and oxidative stress damage
Target PopulationInfertile men
Care SettingReproductive medicine centers

Key Highlights

  • Developed a machine learning model to predict high sperm DFI using clinical and semen parameters
  • Random Forest model showed the best performance with AUC of 0.979 in the development cohort
  • Core factors included sperm motility, concentration, viability, and lifestyle factors like smoking and stress
  • Model exhibits miscalibration in external validation, indicating overestimation of risk
  • A publicly accessible online DFI prediction platform was created

Guideline-Based Recommendations

Diagnosis

  • Incorporate sperm DNA fragmentation index (DFI) into sperm quality testing as recommended by WHO

Management

  • Utilize machine learning models to assess sperm DFI for clinical decision-making

Monitoring & Follow-up

  • Prospective validation and recalibration of the model in independent populations are required

Risks

  • Model shows systematic overestimation of risk and insufficient dispersion of predictions

Patient & Prescribing Data

Infertile male patients from two reproductive medicine centers in Shanghai, China

Machine learning models can identify risk factors affecting sperm DFI quality

Clinical Best Practices

  • Employ machine learning algorithms for predicting sperm quality parameters
  • Consider lifestyle factors in assessing male infertility

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