Modeling the impact of vaccine dose prioritization strategies during the 2022 mpox outbreak
By
Patrick A Clay
Emily D Pollock
Enrique M Saldarriaga
Preeti Pathela
Michelle Macaraig
Jane R Zucker
Bindy Crouch
Ian Kracalik
Ian H Spicknall
March 11, 2025
Clinical Scorecard: Evaluating Vaccine Dose Prioritization Approaches During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak
At a Glance
Category Detail
Condition Mpox (Monkeypox virus infection)
Key Mechanisms Transmission via sexual networks among GBMSM; vaccination with JYNNEOS vaccine (1 or 2 doses) reduces infection risk
Target Population Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) at increased risk of mpox
Care Setting Public health vaccination campaigns and outbreak response in urban settings (e.g., New York City)
Key Highlights
NYC prioritized widespread single-dose vaccination due to limited JYNNEOS vaccine supply during 2022 mpox outbreak. Modeling estimated that NYC’s first-dose priority strategy averted 66% of potential mpox cases compared to no vaccination. Preallocating full 2-dose courses to a smaller population would have increased outbreak size compared to first-dose priority.
Guideline-Based Recommendations
Diagnosis
Diagnosis based on symptom onset and mpox testing among symptomatic individuals in at-risk populations. Individuals seeking treatment for mpox symptoms should be tested and reported as diagnosed cases.
Management
Administer JYNNEOS vaccine with priority on first-dose coverage during vaccine shortages. Symptomatic individuals should abstain from sexual activity until recovery. Symptom onset reduces sexual contact rates by 50% and lowers sexual activity level.
Monitoring & Follow-up
Monitor incident mpox cases to calibrate transmission models and guide vaccination strategies. Track vaccine administration data and case reports to evaluate outbreak control.
Risks
Limited vaccine supply may necessitate prioritization strategies impacting outbreak size. Delaying second doses in favor of widespread first-dose coverage may be more effective in outbreak control.
Patient & Prescribing Data
GBMSM population in New York City at increased risk for mpox infection.
Single-dose vaccination strategy averted more cases than prioritizing full 2-dose vaccination in a smaller group during vaccine shortages.
Clinical Best Practices
Prioritize first-dose vaccination widely during outbreaks with limited vaccine supply to maximize cases averted. Use dynamic network modeling to inform vaccination strategies tailored to sexual behavior patterns in GBMSM. Encourage symptomatic individuals to reduce sexual contacts and seek testing promptly.
References