Clinical Scorecard: Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in South Korea: A Modeling Study Based on Counterfactual Scenarios

At a Glance

Key Highlights

• South Korea used NPIs to contain COVID-19 without nationwide lockdowns.

• Vaccination began in early 2021, initially prioritizing high-risk populations and health care workers.

• Counterfactual modeling evaluated four COVID-19 control policies.

• Analyses covered pre-Delta and Delta-dominant periods.

• The model was calibrated using national surveillance data.

Guideline-Based Recommendations

Diagnosis

• The study defined confirmed cases by positive RT-PCR results.

Management

• Modeling supports earlier vaccination and sustained testing and contact tracing capacity.

• Social distancing should be adjusted promptly as epidemic conditions change.

Monitoring & Follow-up

• Monitor age-specific confirmed cases, vaccination counts, variant prevalence, and the proportion quarantined at diagnosis.

Risks

• Relaxing NPIs before sufficient population immunity may contribute to renewed outbreaks.

• Reduced testing or contact tracing capacity may increase case burdens.

Patient & Prescribing Data

The population was divided into ages 0–19, 20–64, and 65 years or older.

The study used population-level, anonymized surveillance data; it did not report individual patient or prescribing data.

Clinical Best Practices

• Maintain diagnostic testing and contact tracing throughout an epidemic.

• Secure vaccine supplies early and support timely deployment.

• Use surveillance-informed modeling to evaluate policy scenarios.

• Adjust social distancing in response to resurgence signals.

Related Resources & Content

• Counterfactual evaluation of COVID-19 control policies in South Korea: A scenario-based modeling study