Interim Estimated Effectiveness of 2025-2026 COVID-19 Vaccines in Adults Using a Test-Negative Design - Scorecard - MDSpire

Interim Estimated Effectiveness of 2025-2026 COVID-19 Vaccines in Adults Using a Test-Negative Design

  • By

  • Ryan E. Wiegand

  • Sean Chickery

  • Duck-Hye Yang

  • Sarah W. Ball

  • Malini B. DeSilva

  • Kristin Dascomb

  • Stephanie A. Irving

  • Karthik Natarajan

  • Nicola P. Klein

  • Shaun J. Grannis

  • Toan C. Ong

  • Elizabeth A. K. Rowley

  • Adam Yates

  • Yan Zhuang

  • Sarah Wilson

  • Charlene E. McEvoy

  • Inih J. Essien

  • Omobosola O. Akinsete

  • Allison L. Naleway

  • Padma Koppolu

  • Ousseny Zerbo

  • John R. Hansen

  • Karen B. Jacobson

  • Lawrence Block

  • Brian E. Dixon

  • Thomas Duszynski

  • Colin Rogerson

  • Michelle A. Barron

  • Catia Chavez

  • Josephine Mak

  • Allison Avrich Ciesla

  • Monica Godfrey

  • Amber Kautz

  • Morgan Najdowski

  • Ruth Link-Gelles

  • Jennifer DeCuir

  • Amanda B. Payne

  • June 23, 2026

  • 0 min

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Clinical Scorecard: Preliminary Assessment of the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines for 2025-2026 in Adults Utilizing a Test-Negative Approach

At a Glance

CategoryDetail
ConditionCOVID-19
Key MechanismsEstimation of vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19–associated ED/UC encounters and hospitalizations.
Target PopulationImmunocompetent adults aged 18 years and older.
Care SettingEmergency department and urgent care settings.

Key Highlights

  • Estimated 390,000 to 550,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US from October 2024 to September 2025.
  • FDA recommended monovalent JN.1 lineage-based vaccines for 2025-2026.
  • Study analyzed 85,725 ED/UC encounters among immunocompetent adults.
  • Vaccine effectiveness calculated using a test-negative design.
  • Adjusted odds ratios estimated via multivariable logistic regression.

Guideline-Based Recommendations

Diagnosis

  • Use ICD-10 discharge diagnosis codes for COVID-19–like illness.

Management

  • Monitor vaccine effectiveness with new formulations.

Monitoring & Follow-up

  • Continual assessment of vaccine effectiveness is essential.

Risks

  • Exclusions for patients receiving vaccines too close to encounters.

Patient & Prescribing Data

Immunocompetent adults aged 18 years and older.

Vaccination history obtained from immunization information systems and electronic health records.

Clinical Best Practices

  • Ensure vaccination data is reported to immunization information systems.
  • Use a test-negative design for estimating vaccine effectiveness.

Related Resources & Content

Original Source(s)

Interim Estimated Effectiveness of 2025-2026 COVID-19 Vaccines in Adults Using a Test-Negative Design

  • by Ryan E. Wiegand, Sean Chickery, Duck-Hye Yang, Sarah W. Ball, Malini B. DeSilva, Kristin Dascomb, Stephanie A. Irving, Karthik Natarajan, Nicola P. Klein, Shaun J. Grannis, Toan C. Ong, Elizabeth A. K. Rowley, Adam Yates, Yan Zhuang, Sarah Wilson, Charlene E. McEvoy, Inih J. Essien, Omobosola O. Akinsete, Allison L. Naleway, Padma Koppolu, Ousseny Zerbo, John R. Hansen, Karen B. Jacobson, Lawrence Block, Brian E. Dixon, Thomas Duszynski, Colin Rogerson, Michelle A. Barron, Catia Chavez, Josephine Mak, Allison Avrich Ciesla, Monica Godfrey, Amber Kautz, Morgan Najdowski, Ruth Link-Gelles, Jennifer DeCuir, Amanda B. Payne

  • June 23, 2026

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