Clinical Scorecard: Modeling the Dynamics of Hepatitis C Transmission Using Fractional Order Approaches and Physics-Informed Neural Networks
At a Glance
Category
Detail
Condition
Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection
Key Mechanisms
Non-Markovian memory and hereditary properties of infection and treatment dynamics modeled via Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivatives capturing fading memory effects
Target Population
General population and high-risk groups in Zimbabwe and Sub-Saharan Africa, including people who inject drugs, people living with HIV, and incarcerated individuals
Care Setting
Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) healthcare settings with limited diagnostic and treatment access
Key Highlights
HCV affects 58 million people globally with significant morbidity and mortality including hepatocellular carcinoma and liver cirrhosis.
Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective and safe but remain largely inaccessible in LMICs due to cost and systemic barriers.
Fractional-order modeling using Caputo–Fabrizio derivatives better captures the biological memory effects in HCV progression and treatment response.
Guideline-Based Recommendations
Diagnosis
Increase HCV screening to meet WHO targets of diagnosing 90% of infected individuals by 2030.
Target high-risk populations such as PWID, people living with HIV, and incarcerated persons for screening.
Management
Use directly acting antivirals (DAAs) as first-line treatment due to their high efficacy and safety profile.
Implement micro-elimination strategies focusing on specific populations or regions to accelerate progress.
Monitoring & Follow-up
Monitor viral load and treatment response considering the fading memory effects modeled by fractional derivatives.
Track national progress towards WHO elimination goals with emphasis on diagnosis and treatment coverage.
Risks
Address barriers including stigma, criminalization, and lack of trust in healthcare systems that limit access to care.
Recognize the silent progression of HCV due to long asymptomatic latent periods.
Patient & Prescribing Data
Patients with chronic HCV infection in Zimbabwe and similar LMIC settings
Generic sofosbuvir/velpatasvir regimens reduce costs significantly but remain unaffordable for many; complex care pathways and limited knowledge impede treatment uptake.
Clinical Best Practices
Adopt fractional-order models to better understand and predict HCV disease progression and treatment outcomes.
Enhance access to affordable DAAs through policy and financial support to meet elimination targets.
Implement targeted screening and treatment programs focusing on marginalized and high-risk groups.
Increase education and awareness among patients and healthcare providers to improve diagnosis and treatment rates.
The CDC has dropped routine recommendations for six childhood vaccines, shifting decisions to parents and doctors despite decades of evidence showing the shots prevented millions of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths.
