Establishment and internal-external validation of a 28-day mortality prediction model for septic shock patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction - Summary - MDSpire
Advertisement
Establishment and internal-external validation of a 28-day mortality prediction model for septic shock patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction
To establish and validate a 28-day mortality prediction model specifically for septic shock patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) as a key risk factor, addressing the inadequacies of existing prediction models.
Approach:
Study Design: Retrospective multicenter cohort study enrolling 226 septic shock patients from September 2021 to October 2024 for training and 132 from November 2024 to December 2025 for validation.
Key Findings:
Independent predictors of 28-day mortality included LVSD, decreased pH, atrial arrhythmia, dopamine use, and reduced PaO2/FiO2.
The model's AUC in the training cohort was 0.767 (95% CI: 0.703–0.831), and after internal validation, the mean AUC was 0.779 (95% CI: 0.713–0.841).
External validation confirmed the reliability of the predictive model, which outperformed the APACHE II score.
Interpretation:
The 28-day mortality prediction model demonstrated excellent discriminative power, stability, and clinical applicability.
Limitations:
Retrospective design may introduce bias, potentially affecting the reliability of the findings.
Findings may not be generalizable beyond the studied population.
Conclusion:
The developed nomogram provides a reliable tool for predicting 28-day mortality in septic shock patients with LVSD.
