Mechanistic constraints in dengue severity: a systematic review with evidence stratification and agent-based evaluation of logical sufficiency - Summary - MDSpire
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Mechanistic constraints in dengue severity: a systematic review with evidence stratification and agent-based evaluation of logical sufficiency
To identify and evaluate the mechanisms influencing severe dengue and assess their logical coherence in explaining vascular decompensation.
Approach:
Key Findings:
Three mechanism families reached C1_conditional evidence: NS1-linked vascular permeability, endothelial glycocalyx/barrier disruption, and myeloid effector activation.
Two null randomized trials indicated that rupatadine did not significantly reduce plasma leakage (RR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.41–1.12) and oseltamivir did not improve time to defervescence (MD = +0.1 days, p=0.055).
The ABM demonstrated that the NS1–barrier–myeloid set could generate a spatially connected endothelial-barrier failure analog under specific conditions.
Interpretation:
The evidence supports a minimum-range organizational account of severe dengue vascular decompensation centered on the NS1–barrier–myeloid unit, indicating competing constraints during progression toward vascular leakage.
Limitations:
No mechanism family was eligible for quantitative pooling due to sparse CI-bearing estimates and insufficiently harmonized outcome definitions.
The ABM does not establish causal mechanistic validation, molecular equivalence, or patient-level prediction.
Conclusion:
Future research should focus on longitudinal cohorts measuring NS1/viraemia and endothelial barrier injury markers, along with functional perturbation assays.