Mechanistic constraints in dengue severity: a systematic review with evidence stratification and agent-based evaluation of logical sufficiency - Summary - MDSpire

Mechanistic constraints in dengue severity: a systematic review with evidence stratification and agent-based evaluation of logical sufficiency

  • By

  • Roberto Navarro Quiroz

  • Katherine Escorcia Lindo

  • Andrea Jaruffe Pinilla

  • Yiris Diaz-Olmos

  • Noelia Geribaldi-Dóldan

  • Cecilia Fernández-Ponce

  • Eloina Zarate Peñata

  • Yesit Bello Lemus

  • Lisandro Pacheco Lugo

  • Leonardo Pacheco Londoño

  • Antonio Acosta-Hoyos

  • Nataly Galan Freyle

  • Elkin Navarro Quiroz

  • June 19, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To identify and evaluate the mechanisms influencing severe dengue and assess their logical coherence in explaining vascular decompensation.

Approach:
    Key Findings:
    • Three mechanism families reached C1_conditional evidence: NS1-linked vascular permeability, endothelial glycocalyx/barrier disruption, and myeloid effector activation.
    • Two null randomized trials indicated that rupatadine did not significantly reduce plasma leakage (RR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.41–1.12) and oseltamivir did not improve time to defervescence (MD = +0.1 days, p=0.055).
    • The ABM demonstrated that the NS1–barrier–myeloid set could generate a spatially connected endothelial-barrier failure analog under specific conditions.
    Interpretation:

    The evidence supports a minimum-range organizational account of severe dengue vascular decompensation centered on the NS1–barrier–myeloid unit, indicating competing constraints during progression toward vascular leakage.

    Limitations:
    • No mechanism family was eligible for quantitative pooling due to sparse CI-bearing estimates and insufficiently harmonized outcome definitions.
    • The ABM does not establish causal mechanistic validation, molecular equivalence, or patient-level prediction.
    Conclusion:

    Future research should focus on longitudinal cohorts measuring NS1/viraemia and endothelial barrier injury markers, along with functional perturbation assays.

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