To summarize the epidemiology, subgroup patterns, and future projections of malignant skin cancers using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database.
Approach:
Data Analysis: Analyzed GBD 2023 estimates for malignant melanoma, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, and basal cell carcinoma from 1990 to 2023, focusing on prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).
Subgroup Analysis: Conducted subgroup analyses by sex, age group, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI).
Projections: Utilized a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model for projections to 2050.
Key Findings:
In 2023, skin cancer DALYs were concentrated in high-SDI regions, with melanoma prevalence highest in Oceania.
From 1990 to 2023, low- and middle-SDI regions showed consistent increases in incidence, particularly for melanoma.
Melanoma DALYs declined in high-SDI regions, while squamous cell carcinoma DALYs increased in low-SDI settings.
Male prevalence rates were higher across all cancers, with notable increases in older age groups for melanoma.
Projections indicate significant increases in DALYs for all skin cancers by 2050, particularly in low- and middle-SDI regions.
Interpretation:
Distinct regional patterns indicate increasing trends in low- and middle-SDI settings, while high-SDI regions show heterogeneous patterns with some stabilization in melanoma burden.
Limitations:
GBD estimates may underestimate burden in low-SDI settings due to incomplete reporting.
Projections may be influenced by public health policies and healthcare resource allocation.
Conclusion:
The study highlights the rising burden of skin cancers, particularly in low- and middle-SDI regions, and the need for improved healthcare access and screening.
