Sex differences in the predictive value of insulin resistance surrogate indicators for prediabetes among Chinese adults aged 18–45 years: a multicenter cohort study - Summary - MDSpire

Sex differences in the predictive value of insulin resistance surrogate indicators for prediabetes among Chinese adults aged 18–45 years: a multicenter cohort study

  • By

  • Yafei Chang

  • Luming Zhang

  • Shafiu Adam UmarShinge

  • Rui Gu

  • Xingchao Zhou

  • Qingzhou Zhang

  • Xinyi Zhang

  • Binbin Zhang

  • Jiawei Liu

  • Yanqi Yang

  • June 24, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To evaluate and compare the predictive value of four insulin resistance (IR) surrogate indices for incident prediabetes and examine sex-specific disparities in their predictive performance.

Approach:
  • Study Design: Multicenter retrospective cohort study using data from the Rich Healthcare Group Database, enrolling 63,795 adults aged 18–45 years with normoglycemia at baseline.
  • Statistical Analysis: Cox proportional hazards regression models, restricted cubic spline analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were employed.
Key Findings:
  • 5,304 participants (8.31%) developed prediabetes during follow-up, with a higher incidence in men (10.76%) than women (5.74%; p< 0.001).
  • All four IR indices were independently associated with incident prediabetes after multivariable adjustment.
  • METS-IR showed a fully adjusted hazard ratio of 7.82 in women compared to 1.45 in men.
  • TyG-BMI demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy in the overall population (AUC = 0.6497).
  • Women exhibited superior discriminative performance across all indices compared to men.
Interpretation:

IR surrogate indices have significantly greater predictive value for prediabetes in young Chinese women than in men, particularly with METS-IR showing pronounced sex disparity.

Limitations:
  • The study is retrospective and may be subject to biases inherent in observational studies.
  • The cohort was limited to young adults aged 18-45, which may not generalize to older populations.
Conclusion:

The findings indicate sex-specific differences in the predictive value of IR surrogate indices for prediabetes.

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