Grail’s multi-cancer early detection trial was negative. But as an oncologist, I see more to this story
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By
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Sana Raoof
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June 4, 2026
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Objective:
To evaluate the effectiveness of the Galleri multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test in reducing stage 3 and 4 cancers in a randomized trial.
Key Findings:
- The positive predictive value (PPV) of the Grail test was 52%, higher than many existing screening tests.
- The trial revealed a paradoxical increase in stage 3 cancers alongside a decrease in stage 4 cancers, negating the primary endpoint.
- Grail's testing quadrupled the number of screen-detected cancers, which are generally associated with better outcomes.
Interpretation:
Limitations:
- The trial duration of three years may have been insufficient to observe significant outcomes.
- The primary endpoint may not have adequately captured the potential for curative treatments.
Conclusion: