Development and internal validation of a risk prediction model for ipsilateral upper-limb lymphedema following breast cancer surgery

By
Yufei Fan
Gaofeng Yang
Yumeng Zeng
Yanfei Lu
Fan Feng
Xiudi Wang
June 3, 2026
0 min

Frontiers In Oncology

Objective:

To develop and internally validate a clinically practical predictive nomogram for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL).

Key Findings:

27 out of 234 patients (11.5%) developed BCRL.
Final nomogram included four variables: surgery type, pectoral nodes dissection, number of harvested lymph nodes, and N stage.
Breast-conserving surgery was linked to a lower risk of BCRL.
Model demonstrated excellent discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.964 and a bootstrap optimism-corrected AUC of 0.954.
Calibration analysis indicated residual overfitting.

Interpretation:

The nomogram showed strong discrimination and acceptable calibration, indicating potential clinical utility for identifying high-risk patients.

Limitations:

The model requires external validation.
It should be used as a supportive risk-stratification aid rather than a stand-alone clinical decision-making tool.

Conclusion:

A clinically practical nomogram for predicting BCRL was developed and validated, which may help identify patients for closer surveillance and preventive measures.

Development and internal validation of a risk prediction model for ipsilateral upper-limb lymphedema following breast cancer surgery

Objective:

Key Findings:

Interpretation:

Limitations:

Conclusion:

Original Source(s)

Development and internal validation of a risk prediction model for ipsilateral upper-limb lymphedema following breast cancer surgery

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