To identify factors associated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in wasp sting patients and develop a quantitative risk prediction model.
Approach:
Study Design: A retrospective cohort study involving 324 wasp sting patients from January 2018 to December 2023, divided into MODS (n = 90) and non-MODS (n = 234) groups.
Data Analysis: Comparison of general characteristics, imaging findings, and laboratory parameters; binary logistic regression used to identify risk factors; development of a nomogram-based prediction model.
Model Evaluation: Evaluation of the model using ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curves.
Key Findings:
Significant differences were observed between groups in age, time from sting to admission, pleural effusion, RALE score, PLT, LYM, MO, FIB, ALB, MPV/PLT, P-LCR, FAR, FPR, CLR, SHR, NLR, PLR, PNR, SIRI, and SII (all P < 0.05).
Independent risk factors identified: age, time to admission, pleural effusion, RALE score, MPV/PLT, and SIRI (OR > 1, all P < 0.05).
Nomogram prediction model showed an AUC of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.776–0.880) with sensitivity of 66.7% and specificity of 87.9% at the optimal cutoff.
Interpretation:
The occurrence of MODS after wasp stings is associated with specific clinical and laboratory factors.
Limitations:
The model lacks external validation and requires confirmation in future large-scale, multicenter, prospective studies.
Conclusion:
The nomogram model provides a useful reference for clinical MODS risk assessment in wasp sting patients.
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