Development and external validation of a 90-day mortality prediction model for comatose sepsis patients: impact of cerebrovascular disease and dementia - Summary - MDSpire

Development and external validation of a 90-day mortality prediction model for comatose sepsis patients: impact of cerebrovascular disease and dementia

  • By

  • Yaoxi Tan

  • Yadong Shen

  • Yanting Zhang

  • July 2, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To develop and validate a prediction model for 90-day mortality in comatose sepsis patients, with a focus on how cerebrovascular disease and dementia modulate the prognostic value of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS).

Approach:
  • External Validation: Conducted external validation with contemporary institutional data (n = 251) from 2022 to 2026.
Key Findings:
  • GCS was not a significant independent predictor in the final model (OR 1.09 per one-point decrease, P = 0.126), but exploratory analyses indicated that lower GCS was associated with higher mortality in patients without cerebrovascular disease (OR 1.45) or dementia (OR 1.40).
Interpretation:

Cerebrovascular disease and dementia significantly modulate the prognostic value of GCS in predicting 90-day mortality in comatose sepsis patients.

Limitations:
  • The study is retrospective and may be subject to biases inherent in observational data, including selection bias and confounding factors.
  • External validation was limited to one institution, which may affect generalizability.
Conclusion:

The developed model provides superior risk stratification for comatose sepsis patients.

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