Identifying risk individuals for heart failure diagnosis within two years in the adult population in southern Sweden using gender, age, multimorbidity level, and socioeconomic status - Summary - MDSpire

Identifying risk individuals for heart failure diagnosis within two years in the adult population in southern Sweden using gender, age, multimorbidity level, and socioeconomic status

  • By

  • Mia Scholten

  • Anders Halling

  • July 6, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To identify individuals at high risk of developing heart failure (HF) over a two-year period using widely available information as risk factors.

Approach:
  • Data Source: Utilized the Region Skåne healthcare register in southern Sweden for anonymized registry information including gender, age, diagnostic data, and socioeconomic status (SES).
  • HF Diagnosis Criteria: HF was diagnosed based on ESC guidelines, requiring clinical symptoms, objective findings of impaired cardiac function, and elevated BNP values.
  • Multimorbidity Assessment: Chronic conditions were identified using a method developed by Calderón-Larrañaga et al., analyzing ICD-10 codes to determine chronicity.
  • Socioeconomic Status Measurement: SES was measured using the Care Need Index (CNI), categorizing PHCs into groups based on socioeconomic affluence.
  • Statistical Analysis: Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio of HF diagnosis within two years, considering variables like gender, age, MM level, and SES.
Key Findings:
  • The study population consisted of 961,190 individuals, with 50.9% being women and 49.1% men.
  • Multimorbidity and socioeconomic factors were significant in assessing HF risk.
  • Logistic regression models indicated varying odds of HF diagnosis based on demographic and health factors.
Interpretation:

The findings highlight the importance of demographic and health-related factors in predicting HF risk in the adult population of southern Sweden.

Limitations:
  • The study is based on registry data, which may have limitations in accuracy and completeness.
  • The analysis is limited to individuals aged 20 and older without a prior HF diagnosis.
Conclusion:

Identifying high-risk individuals for HF can aid in early diagnosis and treatment, potentially improving patient outcomes.

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