Serum progesterone levels for ‘rescue’ in hormone replacement FET: a retrospective cohort study of 917 cycles - Summary - MDSpire

Serum progesterone levels for ‘rescue’ in hormone replacement FET: a retrospective cohort study of 917 cycles

  • By

  • Goksu Goc

  • Yavuz Emre Sukur

  • June 1, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To describe reproductive outcomes in patients managed with a single-dose IM rescue protocol versus those not requiring rescue and explore the association of very low pre-ET progesterone with lower live birth rates or higher miscarriage rates.

Key Findings:
  • LBR was significantly lower in the Rescue group with pre-ET P4 <5 ng/mL (19.2%) compared to those with P4 5–7.49 ng/mL (43.8%) and 7.5–9.99 ng/mL (39.0%).
  • Miscarriage rates were higher in the <5 ng/mL group (46.7%) compared to the ≥5 ng/mL group (9.9%).
  • Rescue with P4 ≥5 ng/mL showed LBR similar to No-Rescue (41.8% vs. 39.2%).
  • Among borderline cycles (P4 9.1–9.9 ng/mL), LBR was numerically higher with rescue (57.1%) than without (40.0%), but underpowered.
  • ROC AUC was 0.609 with a Youden cutoff of 5.3 ng/mL.
Interpretation:

Pre-ET P4 <5 ng/mL was associated with poor per-transfer prognosis, but this finding is assay-specific and not a validated deferral rule.

Limitations:
  • No cycles were deferred, limiting the ability to isolate the rescue effect.
  • The study is exploratory and specific to the Cobas e411 ECLIA assay, requiring recalibration for other platforms.
  • The small sample size of the borderline cycles limits statistical power.
Conclusion:

The findings indicate that low pre-ET P4 levels are associated with poor outcomes, but further validation is necessary.

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