Ten-Year Cost Projections for Medicare Beneficiaries 65 Years or Older With HIV - Summary - MDSpire

Ten-Year Cost Projections for Medicare Beneficiaries 65 Years or Older With HIV

  • By

  • Emily P. Hyle

  • Luke Ang

  • Grace Luu

  • Parastu Kasaie

  • Dannie Dai

  • Florence Ebem

  • Jessica Phelan

  • Satoshi Koiso

  • Ciara Duggan

  • Elizabeth Humes

  • Dori Molozanov

  • Paul E. Sax

  • Lucas Gerace

  • John Giardina

  • E. John Orav

  • Tim Horn

  • Anne M. Neilan

  • Ankur Pandya

  • Jose F. Figueroa

  • Keri N. Althoff

  • Kenneth A. Freedberg

  • July 7, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To project the number of people with HIV (PWH) aged 65 years or older on Medicare in the US over the next decade and the associated healthcare costs.

Approach:
  • Cohort Construction: Constructed cohorts of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older receiving care for HIV, including those turning 65 and newly diagnosed individuals, based on specific eligibility criteria.
Key Findings:
  • Estimated 111,600 Medicare beneficiaries with HIV at the start of 2026, with a mean age of 70.9 years.
  • 74% of PWH aged 65 years or older receiving care are enrolled in traditional Medicare.
  • Projected monthly entries of Medicare-enrolled PWH turning 65 and newly diagnosed individuals were calculated based on demographic trends.
Interpretation:

The analysis highlights the growing population of older PWH on Medicare and the associated healthcare costs, emphasizing the need for cost management strategies.

Limitations:
  • The projections are based on current trends and may not account for future changes in healthcare policies or ART costs.
  • The models do not include individual-level data, which may limit the granularity of the findings.
Conclusion:

The study provides a framework for understanding the future healthcare costs and population dynamics of older PWH on Medicare, highlighting the projected increase in both population size and associated costs.

Original Source(s)

Ten-Year Cost Projections for Medicare Beneficiaries 65 Years or Older With HIV

  • by Emily P. Hyle, Luke Ang, Grace Luu, Parastu Kasaie, Dannie Dai, Florence Ebem, Jessica Phelan, Satoshi Koiso, Ciara Duggan, Elizabeth Humes, Dori Molozanov, Paul E. Sax, Lucas Gerace, John Giardina, E. John Orav, Tim Horn, Anne M. Neilan, Ankur Pandya, Jose F. Figueroa, Keri N. Althoff, Kenneth A. Freedberg

  • July 7, 2026

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