Temporal trends and projected mortality of myocardial infarction and heart failure in the United States, 1999–2035: a CDC WONDER analysis

To analyze national myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) mortality trends from 1999 to 2024 and project rates through 2035.

Data Collection: Mortality data for adults aged ≥25 years with MI- and HF-related deaths were obtained from CDC WONDER.
Statistical Analysis: Age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated and temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Forecasts through 2035 were generated using Auto-ARIMA and Prophet models.

552,835 MI- and HF-related deaths recorded from 1999 to 2024.
The national AAMR declined from 15.32 in 1999 to 7.55 in 2024.
Projected AAMR for 2035 is 8.41 per 100,000.
Mortality rates were higher in men (12.33) than women (7.87) and in non-Hispanic Black individuals (10.59) compared to non-Hispanic White (9.92) and Hispanic (7.70) individuals.
The South had the highest mortality burden (mean AAMR: 10.52) while the Northeast had the lowest (mean AAMR: 8.34).
Mortality remained highest among adults aged ≥65 years and increased among adults aged 25–44 years after 2010.
Rural populations had higher mortality rates than urban populations, with projected AAMRs of 13.94 and 7.73 per 100,000, respectively.

The study relies on mortality data which may not capture all relevant health outcomes.
Forecasting models may not account for future changes in risk factors or healthcare interventions.