Effectiveness of varicella vaccine during a varicella outbreak in a Chinese senior high school: a retrospective cohort study - Summary - MDSpire

Assessment of Varicella Vaccine Efficacy Amidst an Outbreak in a Chinese High School: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

  • By

  • Nani Xu

  • Liting Wu

  • Xuan Deng

  • Xin Shu

  • Yejing Yang

  • Pan Qin

  • Kailuo Zhong

  • Shenyu Wang

  • Xiaowei Hu

  • July 21, 2026

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Objective:

To evaluate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of single-dose and two-dose varicella vaccine (VarV) among senior high school students during a varicella outbreak in China.

Approach:
  • Study Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among students in a senior high school in China during a varicella outbreak from July 23 to November 8, 2024.
  • Data Collection: The study surveyed the history of varicella disease, immunization history of VarV, and incidence during the outbreak among all students.
  • Statistical Analysis: Kaplan–Meier methods were used to estimate cumulative varicella-free survival rates, and logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with varicella infection.
Key Findings:
  • Overall varicella attack rate was 6.29% among 1,862 students.
  • Single-dose VarV coverage was 28.24%, and two-dose coverage was 66.23%.
  • Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 32.14% (−54.37%-70.17%) for 1-dose recipients and 94.74% (88.62%-97.57%) for 2-dose recipients compared to unvaccinated individuals.
  • Post-exposure vaccination VE was 90.15% (68.53%-96.92%) among unvaccinated students and 94.88% (89.47%-97.51%) among those who had received 1 dose.
Interpretation:

A single dose of varicella vaccine provides limited long-term protection, while a two-dose regimen offers robust and sustained effectiveness.

Limitations:
  • The study is limited to a single high school outbreak, which may affect generalizability.
  • Potential biases in self-reported vaccination status.
Conclusion:

A single dose of varicella vaccine provides limited long-term protection among high school students, whereas a two-dose regimen offers robust and sustained effectiveness.

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