To analyze the burden of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2023 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023.
Approach:
Data Source: Utilized data from the GBD 2023, synthesizing information from vital registration, cancer registries, and censuses.
Burden Measures: Assessed incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using age-standardized rates (ASRs) and crude rates.
Decomposition Analysis: Quantified contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological change to pancreatic cancer burden changes.
Risk Factor Analysis: Evaluated burden attributable to modifiable risk factors including smoking, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), high body mass index (BMI), and high alcohol use.
Statistical Analysis: Employed Joinpoint regression to calculate average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and explored short-term trends around the COVID-19 pandemic.
Key Findings:
In 2023, China had an estimated 118,381 incident cases (95% UI 103,773-135,339) and 114,949 deaths (95% UI 101,214-131,619) from pancreatic cancer.
The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased slightly with an AAPC of 0.38%.
The burden was consistently higher in males than in females, with rising incidence rates in both 15–49 years and ≥75 years age groups.
High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) was identified as a more significant risk factor than smoking.
Post-2019 trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates showed increases that were not statistically significant.
Interpretation:
Limitations:
The study relies on modeling estimates which may have inherent uncertainties.
Short-term trends post-2019 require further validation due to potential disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic.
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