Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19 Among Individuals at High Risk: A Modeling Study - Summary - MDSpire

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19 Among Individuals at High Risk: A Modeling Study

  • By

  • Emma Birnie

  • Magda Vergouwe

  • Brent Appelman

  • Jason J Biemond

  • Jarom Heijmans

  • Brooke E Nichols

  • W Joost Wiersinga

  • Stephanie Popping

  • on behalf of

  • the TURN-COVID studygroup

  • Matthijs R A Welkers

  • Hans L Zaaijer

  • Frans J van Ittersum

  • Maarten F Schim van der Loeff

  • Marije K Bomers

  • Marie José Kersten

  • Mette D Hazenberg

  • Marc van der Valk

  • E Marleen Kemper

  • Frits R Rosendaal

  • Mark G J de Boer

  • Renée A Douma

  • Marcel van den Berge

  • Robert-Jan Hassing

  • Heidi S M Amerlaan

  • Marit G A van Vonderen

  • Janneke E Stalenhoef

  • Robin Soetekouw

  • Frank van de Veerdonk

  • Marvin A H Berrevoets

  • Robbert J van Alphen

  • Frits van Osch

  • Jiri F P Wagenaar

  • Rob J van Marum

  • Astrid M L Oude Lashof

  • Cees van Nieuwkoop

  • Eliane M S Leyten

  • Hazra S Moeniralam

  • Joost N Vermeulen

  • March 26, 2025

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To evaluate the health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir among high-risk COVID-19 patients, particularly in the context of current treatment strategies.

Key Findings:
  • Nirmatrelvir/r could reduce hospitalizations by 21% to 89% and deaths by 34% to 82%, depending on effectiveness scenarios.
  • Cost-effectiveness thresholds were positively influenced by higher baseline rates of ICU and hospital admissions.
  • Nirmatrelvir/r is cost-effective at prices below $512 with low effectiveness and below $1071 with high effectiveness, highlighting the importance of pricing strategies.
Interpretation:

With current low baseline event rates for hospitalization, nirmatrelvir/r has the potential to reduce severe outcomes in high-risk COVID-19 patients cost-effectively, provided the drug price is reduced by 22% to 63%, which is crucial for improving patient care.

Limitations:
  • The model assumes a 100% uptake of nirmatrelvir/r, which may not reflect real-world scenarios, and potential biases in data collection could affect results.
  • Sensitivity analyses were performed, but uncertainties in effectiveness and drug pricing remain.
Conclusion:

The findings highlight the need for policy makers to reevaluate current drug pricing urgently to enhance the accessibility and cost-effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/r for high-risk COVID-19 patients.

Original Source(s)

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19 Among Individuals at High Risk: A Modeling Study

  • by Emma Birnie, Magda Vergouwe, Brent Appelman, Jason J Biemond, Jarom Heijmans, Brooke E Nichols, W Joost Wiersinga, Stephanie Popping, on behalf of, the TURN-COVID studygroup, Matthijs R A Welkers, Hans L Zaaijer, Frans J van Ittersum, Maarten F Schim van der Loeff, Marije K Bomers, Marie José Kersten, Mette D Hazenberg, Marc van der Valk, E Marleen Kemper, Frits R Rosendaal, Mark G J de Boer, Renée A Douma, Marcel van den Berge, Robert-Jan Hassing, Heidi S M Amerlaan, Marit G A van Vonderen, Janneke E Stalenhoef, Robin Soetekouw, Frank van de Veerdonk, Marvin A H Berrevoets, Robbert J van Alphen, Frits van Osch, Jiri F P Wagenaar, Rob J van Marum, Astrid M L Oude Lashof, Cees van Nieuwkoop, Eliane M S Leyten, Hazra S Moeniralam, Joost N Vermeulen

  • March 26, 2025

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