Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses’ supply and wages - Summary - MDSpire

Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses’ supply and wages

  • By

  • Raffaele Vardavas

  • Pedro Nascimento De Lima

  • Lawrence Baker

  • Christina Crowley

  • Katherine Carman

  • Andrew M. Parker

  • Mahshid Abir

  • June 12, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurse labor supply and wage dynamics, particularly focusing on how federal relief funds can mitigate staffing shortages.

Key Findings:
  • The model accurately reproduces observed dynamics for staff and travel nurse workforce participation and wages during the pandemic, with significant implications for rural and safety-net hospitals.
  • Unrestricted reimbursement from relief funds reduces immediate staffing gaps but encourages excessive reliance on contract labor.
  • Stringent requirements for fund applications may deter legitimate applications, especially from rural and safety-net hospitals.
Interpretation:

The model demonstrates the feasibility of simulating epidemiological dynamics and nurse labor market responses in a unified framework, providing valuable insights for future public health emergencies.

Limitations:
  • The model focuses on short-term dynamics rather than long-term structural changes in the nursing workforce.
  • It does not explicitly model epidemiological trends but relies on historical time-series data.
  • The model's assumptions regarding nurse behavior may limit its applicability.
Conclusion:

The findings contribute to understanding the interaction between epidemiological trends and nurse labor supply, aiding in preparedness for future health crises.

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