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The hidden safety risks of permanent DST
A modeling study projects 2.14 billion additional pre-sunrise commutes annually and find greater odds of pedestrian involvement in fatal morning crashes.
To estimate how permanent daylight-saving time (DST) would affect children’s pre-sunrise school commutes and examine the association between morning darkness and pedestrian involvement in fatal crashes.
Approach:
School commute modeling: Researchers used school start times, enrollment, location, sunrise times, and an assumed 20-minute commute for 16,093 public schools serving about 8.6 million children in 14 states. They compared permanent DST, permanent standard time (ST), and the current sea…
Crash analysis: Fatal crashes recorded in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System from 2015 to 2024 were analyzed for school-year weekday mornings from 7:00 to 8:30 AM, including associations between pre-sunrise conditions and pedestrian involvement.
Key Findings:
In the 14-state analysis, estimated annual pre-sunrise school-commute exposure was about 554 million child-days under permanent DST, 198 million under the current system, and 97 million under permanent ST.
A nationwide projection estimated that permanent DST would add about 2.14 billion pre-sunrise commutes annually versus the current system, assuming an 8:00 AM departure. Estimates were 2.63 billion with a 7:45 AM departure and 1.39 billion with an 8:15 AM depa…
Among 10,305 fatal crashes on school-year weekday mornings, 1,754 involved pedestrians. After adjustment for clock hour and weather, pre-sunrise crashes had 1.77 times the odds of involving a pedestrian compared with post-sunrise crashes.
For pedestrians aged 5 to 18 years, pre-sunrise crashes had 2.22 times the adjusted odds of involving a pedestrian; this subgroup analysis included 141 pedestrian-involved fatal crashes.
Interpretation:
The authors concluded that permanent DST would increase children’s exposure to dark-morning commutes and wrote that it would negatively affect youth sleep, health, performance, and safety.
Limitations:
Commute estimates relied on assumed departure times rather than individual travel patterns; the nationwide projection used a fixed departure time because national school-specific schedules were unavailable.
The crash analysis included fatal crashes only and did not capture nonfatal pedestrian incidents.
The modeling and observational analyses cannot establish that permanent DST would directly increase pedestrian injuries or fatalities.
Conclusion:
The study found that permanent DST was projected to increase pre-sunrise school commutes, while fatal crashes before sunrise were more likely to involve pedestrians.
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