To estimate the impact of different vaccine dose prioritization strategies, specifically 'first-dose priority', 'intermediate', and 'second-dose priority', on mpox cases during the 2022 outbreak in NYC.
Key Findings:
NYC's 'first-dose priority' strategy averted 66% (IQR, 47%-78%) of potential mpox cases compared to no vaccination.
'First-dose priority' strategy averted 0.6% (IQR, -11% to 9.8%) more cases than the 'intermediate' strategy.
'First-dose priority' strategy averted 17% (IQR, 2.9%-38%) more cases than the 'second-dose priority' strategy.
Interpretation:
Prioritizing single-dose vaccination for a broader population was more effective in reducing mpox cases than focusing on full vaccination for a smaller group, suggesting a need for policy adjustments in outbreak responses.
Limitations:
Limited data on the effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose vaccination at the time of decision-making may skew results.
Model assumptions may not capture all real-world dynamics of mpox transmission, potentially affecting the accuracy of predictions.
Conclusion:
The analysis supports the effectiveness of a first-dose priority vaccination strategy in controlling mpox outbreaks, indicating that similar approaches may be beneficial in future vaccination strategies.
by Patrick A Clay, Emily D Pollock, Enrique M Saldarriaga, Preeti Pathela, Michelle Macaraig, Jane R Zucker, Bindy Crouch, Ian Kracalik, Ian H Spicknall
