Predicting Recurrence in Early Melanoma - Summary - MDSpire

Predicting Recurrence in Early Melanoma

  • By

  • Andrea Surnit

  • April 1, 2026

  • 3 min

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Objective:

To evaluate clinical and pathologic factors associated with recurrence in localized melanoma.

Key Findings:
  • 16% of patients experienced recurrence over a median follow-up of 7 years, with a median time to recurrence of 2 years.
  • Recurrence rates increased from 4% in stage IA to 37% in stage IIB and 36% in stage IIC.
  • Distant recurrence was the most common, accounting for 48% of cases.
  • Ulceration and increasing tumor thickness were significantly associated with recurrence.
  • Tumor location on the scalp or neck and face was linked to higher recurrence rates.
Interpretation:

Several clinicopathologic variables are associated with time to melanoma recurrence, suggesting that their inclusion could enhance surveillance strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Limitations:
  • Missing data for some pathologic variables may affect the robustness of findings.
  • Single-center design may limit generalizability of results.
  • Possibility of recurrences being captured outside the institution could lead to underreporting.
Conclusion:

Incorporating additional pathologic features could improve recurrence prediction and guide surveillance for melanoma patients, ultimately enhancing patient care.

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