Creation and assessment of a predictive model for dry eye disease risk in myopic pediatric patients - Summary - MDSpire

Creation and assessment of a predictive model for dry eye disease risk in myopic pediatric patients

  • By

  • Bingqing Li

  • Jie Wen

  • Jie Qin

  • Ran Gao

  • Hanruo Liu

  • Fengju Zhang

  • April 28, 2026

  • 0 min

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Objective:

To identify independent risk factors for dry eye disease (DED) and to develop and validate a predictive model for DED among myopic schoolchildren aged 8–16 years in northern China, addressing a significant public health concern.

Key Findings:
  • The prevalence of DED among myopic children was 31.2% based on a sample of 1,303 children.
  • Independent risk factors identified include Ortho-K lens use, daily screen time ≥ 4 h, near work ≥ 4 h, BMI ≥ 24, and sleep duration < 6 h.
  • The risk prediction nomogram demonstrated acceptable discriminative ability (AUC: 0.74 in training set, 0.70 in validation set).
Interpretation:

Dry eye disease is prevalent and often overlooked in myopic children, with significant associations to modifiable lifestyle factors and Ortho-K lens usage, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Limitations:
  • The study is cross-sectional, limiting causal inference.
  • The sample was geographically limited to northern China, which may affect generalizability.
  • Self-reported data from questionnaires may introduce bias.
Conclusion:

The developed nomogram can aid in early identification and intervention for high-risk myopic children, addressing a significant yet under-recognized health issue.

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