Objective:

To describe homicide mortality trends among US women aged 15–44 years before, during, and after the COVID-19 surge, and assess whether post-Dobbs trends differed between states with sustained total or near-total abortion bans and states without such bans.

Approach:

• Design and period: Population-level quasi-experimental study of monthly homicide mortality from January 2016 through December 2024, using interrupted time series and comparative interrupted time series analyses.
• Data and outcome: Homicide deaths were identified in CDC WONDER underlying-cause-of-death records using ICD-10 codes X85–Y09; population denominators came from US Census Bureau estimates.
• Policy comparison: The exposed cluster comprised 11 states with sustained total or near-total bans in 2023–2024. Other eligible states and the District of Columbia formed the unexposed cluster; four states with partial or legally fluid restrictions were excluded from policy-stra…
• Analysis: National segmented time-series models assessed changes around the COVID-19 surge, postsurge recovery, and post-Dobbs period. Population-adjusted Poisson comparative interrupted time-series models assessed policy-cluster differences; women aged 45–59 years serv…

Interpretation:

The supplied context describes the study rationale, design, data, and planned analyses but does not provide results.

Limitations:

• Monthly state-level homicide counts were frequently suppressed, so states were aggregated into fixed policy clusters and inference was conducted at the cluster level.
• The four states with partial or legally fluid abortion restrictions were excluded from policy-stratified analyses.
• The supplied context ends before the full statistical methods and study results.

Conclusion:

No outcome estimates or study conclusions are included in the supplied context.