Objective:

To estimate the size of populations eligible for influenza vaccination and evaluate vaccination coverage gaps among at-risk populations in Mexico from 2010 to 2021.

Approach:

• Study Design: A retrospective analytical study using epidemiological and administrative healthcare databases from Mexican public healthcare institutions.
• Data Analysis: Descriptive analyses and time-series modeling were performed to evaluate vaccination coverage patterns and healthcare demand over time.

Key Findings:

• Healthcare service utilization among at-risk populations was consistently lower than notified cases and prevalence-based estimates.
• Vaccination coverage varied significantly across at-risk populations and remained incomplete throughout the study period.
• In 2021, approximately 12.5 million influenza vaccine doses were administered, but many eligible individuals remained unvaccinated.
• Forecasting analyses indicated a progressive increase in healthcare demand among at-risk populations over time.

Interpretation:

Gaps exist between the estimated population at risk, diagnosed individuals, healthcare utilization, and vaccination coverage in Mexico.

Limitations:

• The study relied on retrospective data, which may have limitations in accuracy and completeness.
• The analysis may not fully capture all at-risk individuals due to variations in healthcare access and reporting.

Conclusion:

Important gaps persist between the estimated population at risk, diagnosed individuals, healthcare utilization, and influenza vaccination coverage in Mexico.